Green Screen Weather

The April Tornadoes: Part II

2011-05-09T20:20:00.000-05:00

Last week I posted some thoughts on the April 2011 tornadoes. I wanted to follow-up with a few more things this week.

All of the damage surveys have been completed. A total of 30 tornadoes were confirmed across central Mississippi and northeast Louisiana. The massive severe weather outbreak in late April, which spanned from April 25th-April 28th, breaks the U.S. record for the most number of tornadoes in an outbreak. Well over 200 tornadoes have been confirmed, and some surveys are still be done.

Also alarming is the number of violent tornadoes that took place during the outbreak. 10 tornadoes have been rated EF-4, with 3 being rated EF-5. Mississippians need to pay attention to those numbers, as 2 of the 3 EF-5s were in our own state! Both of these EF-5s took place on April 27th. There have never been two EF-5 tornadoes in Mississippi on the same day.

Follow this link to view the tornadoes in our area during the super outbreak.

Thankfully as the calendar changed to May, the weather pattern across the country changed to almost summer-like. This will change later this week as a cold front out west will bring some storms, possibly severe, to our area heading into Friday.

Sorry for the lack of posts lately. More tomorrow!

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

The April Tornadoes: Part 1

2011-05-02T10:47:00.000-05:00

I'm back from a much needed vacation. My wife and I returned to Mississippi on Thursday, driving through some of the tornado damage in the Tuscaloosa, AL area on the way. Like me, I'm sure you are glad we are now in May and this will hopefully mean the active weather pattern we've seen this Spring will begin to quite down. Typically April is our biggest severe weather month of the year and certainly April 2011 was extremely active, perhaps even record-breaking. I want to stress that we can and do often still see severe weather in May, including tornadoes. Now isn't the time to let your guard down. In fact, in Mississippi, there is never a time to let your guard down when it comes to severe weather. You must be prepared; have plan you can put into action quickly.

I've got a lot of thoughts regarding the active April we had in the Deep South, including the historic tornado outbreak last week. I'll be sharing my thoughts in several posts this week.

Even though I was not here for last week's severe weather, I was working from 12 hours away keeping Twitter and Facebook updated. All the while watching several tornadic storms that were in my immediate area Virginia.

I've been trying to nail down exactly how many tornadoes have been confirmed in the month of April across Mississippi. Trying to do this has been problematic as there are 4 National Weather Service Forecast Offices that cover our state. Many of these offices are still doing storm surveys from last week's storms and the numbers are constantly changing. So, instead of trying to pin down an exact confirmed number right now, I can tell you that there were a total of 115 preliminary tornado reports in Mississippi. Again, these are not all confirmed, but that is still a very high number and a great majority of 115 will be confirmed.

This map shows the storm reports for Mississippi for April 2011.

Red dots = tornadoes; Blue dots = wind; Green dots = hail

Last year, there were 9 confirmed tornadoes in Mississippi. Also of note, in 2008 there were a total of 109 tornadoes...the most on record for Mississippi.¹ Is it possible that we could exceed the yearly record in one month??? Damage surveys are still being done, but we may know something on this by the end of the week.

The graphic above is from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. It shows the rotation tracks of the storms from April 27th. The bright oranges and reds are the most intense rotations.

As I mentioned earlier, I checked out some of the damage in Tuscaloosa while driving back to Mississippi. Much of downtown Tuscaloosa was blocked off and I could not see anything from my vantage point. I drove I-359, the loop around Tuscaloosa, and only went a mile or so off of I-20/59 to get to where the tornado crossed. Here are some of the pictures I took of that area. You can click on them to make them larger.

The interesting graphic below shows the life-long track of the supercell storm that produced multiple strong to violent tornadoes across Alabama, including the Tuscaloosa tornado. The storm developed back over Newton County, MS (bottom left of image) and tracked northeast across Alabama, northern George, and finally fell apart in western North Carolina! The cell lasted for more than 7 hours! Incredible!! I've seen long-lived cells such as this back in Oklahoma, but never in this part of the country. No doubt a lot of research will be done on this cell in the coming years.

As horrible and horrific as the damage is Tuscaloosa, I am a bit dismayed by the early reports that the town had been wiped off the map. This is certainly not the case. But, a violent EF-4 tornado going through a populated area is bad. There were many other areas that got hit in Alabama though, some of them even worse than Tuscaloosa. In fact, the NWS has rated a tornado that went through Hackleburg, AL an EF-5. Of course, by now you know the tornado that went through Smithville, MS was also rated EF-5. There were also several violent tornadoes in northern Alabama. A good friend we know from church has an aunt that lost her house, and her aunt's family next door was killed. We need to remember all of these hard hit areas in our prayers.

I'll share more thoughts later!

¹ - Even though 2008 presently holds the title for the most tornadoes in a year in the State of Mississippi, damage surveys are conducted differently in the 21st Century as compared to surveys 15-30 years ago. As a result, it is possible that tornado outbreaks in the 70s may have had more tornadoes than what is officially on record.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Damage Surveys & My Thoughts From Friday

2011-04-17T10:42:00.005-05:00

Friday was a very long day. My day actually began on Thursday night. I came into work after the late news to reset all of our computers so that they would be ready to handle the large amounts of data that I knew would be pumped through them Friday. I ran into an issue with our severe weather crawl system that took me about 90 minutes to fix. I got home around 2am.

I rarely sleep before a severe weather event unfolds. I don't know why. Admittedly, severe weather does get my blood pumping. I like storms. I HATE the destruction they cause, but I have always been fascinated with them. You kind of have to be in order to be any good at forecasting them.

I did end up falling asleep around 5am. I woke up at 8:30am. By then we already had tornado warnings. Paul had been in an hour at that point. I got ready and came into work.

We remained on the air pretty much the entire day, nearly 10 hours total with only a couple of times getting enough of a break in warnings to go back to programming.

If you read my post from Wednesday, you know that I was supposed to start vacation on Wednesday. After looking at data on Tuesday and seeing the trends in the data, I called my wife after Tuesday evening's news and told her that we were going to have to postpone our trip to Virginia. I had a sick feeling about Friday. That last time I had a sick feeling about severe weather was April 24, 2010 - the Yazoo City tornado.

Paul and I were on the air tag teaming weather coverage as the supercell storm came into Hinds County from Claiborne and Warrnen counties. We had already had some reports of some damage south of Vicksburg, mainly trees power lines and power poles. The storm got stronger as it tracked closer to Raymond and my private thought was "Oh no, this is going to be bad."

A little after 11am, the tell-tell sign on radar that likely means a tornado is on the ground, showed up. It is called a debris ball. It showed up on the storm that moved across Yazoo City. A debris ball developed as the storm moved across Clinton on Friday. Here is what it looks like on radar (click image to make it larger):

Doppler radar cannot actually tell us if a tornado is on the ground. But, when you see a debris ball, that is confirmation that there is a tornado and there is damage. What happens is that the debris the tornado picks up gets sucked up into the storm's updraft, high enough so the beam of the radar can detect it. The debris shows up as a higher reflective on radar due to the size. What you are seeing on radar there is likely debris from the Bank Plus building and some of the homes in Clinton and West Jackson being pulled up into the storm. As I said on the air Friday, since the storm did go across a bank, there is a possibility it picked up money. That money could have traveled across the state as the storm held together all the way into Alabama. It will be interesting to see if somebody finds some cash over the coming days.

As the storm continued to track into west Jackson, I had our skycam from Baptist Hospital aimed back to west. I never could see if rotation was on the ground, but for the first time in my career at WLBT we watched the wall cloud lower and we could clearly see the mesocyclone. Normally our storms in Mississippi are rain wrapped and you can't see storm features. That was not the case yesterday.

All of it eventually got to me. My wife and our dogs were in the path of the storm. I knew they were in our safe spot, but after the storm moved across the Hinds/Madison County line, phone service was out. When I couldn't reach home, I broke down and had to go have a few moments to regain my composure. I think that's the first time that has ever happened me to me during severe weather coverage. After a few moments in the control room, I was able to carry on with the rest of our wall to wall coverage. When I left the building about 6:30pm, it hit me again. I went home, hugged my wife, played with the dogs, and then my wife and I went to check out some of the damage. For me, seeing the damage in person and talking to the people effected helps me cope with covering such devastating storms. After last year's Yazoo City tornado, my wife and I spent several days in the tiny community of Ebenezer helping hand out supplies, along with taking supplies. We did the same thing following Hurricane Katrina. One of my elderly neighbors has quite a few large limbs down on their property, so I plan to spend Sunday afternoon helping clean that up.

Onto the damage surveys...there are still more to be done, but here is a summary of the preliminary information. Some of this may change as surveys are conducted. It will probably be Monday or Tuesday before we have a final tornado total.

Hinds County:

EF-3 Tornado; tracked from 4.5 miles southwest of Clinton to around the Old Canton/Pear Orchard Rd. area of northeast Jackson.

Max winds: 140mph

Path length: 17 miles

Max width: .3 miles

Attala County:

EF-2 Tornado; on the ground for a brief period near the Possumneck community.

Max winds: 120mph

Path length: 3 miles

Max width: 200 yards

Attala County:

EFHesterville and tracked to about 6 miles northwest of Ethel.

Max winds: 75mph

Path length: 4 miles

Max width: 75 yards

Rankin County:

EF-1 Tornado; impacted the Pisgah community. Damage survey not complete. More info. will follow in coming days.

Neshoba/Kemper Counties:

EF-3 Tornado; tornado formed just west of county road 450. The tornado remained on the ground into Alabama.

Max winds: 140mph

Path length: 38.5 miles (will be longer as tornado tracked into Alabama. This will be updated)

Max width: .75 miles

Greene County:

EF-3 Tornado; survey not completed. More info. will follow.

I'll update this post as new damage surveys come in. Surveys are being done today in northern Rankin County, southwest Leake County, and northwest Scott County. More surveys will be done Monday in Clarke, Issaquena, and Leflore Counties.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Today's Storms

2011-04-15T03:09:00.000-05:00

Never did get a blog update posted yesterday. Between Blogger (the host of this blog) having problems and me being tied up with another obligation, it didn't happen. Even this morning Blogger is having some issues, but I did finally get one graphic to upload.

Unfortunately, no big changes in the forecast for today. The new Day 1 SPC outlook is out and they continue a moderate risk over our area. I wouldn't be completely shocked if we saw a small area in east Mississippi into Alabama upgraded to a high risk, depending on how things play out. Still seems to be likely there will be numerous supercell storms out there this afternoon with each one having a chance of producing a strong tornado.

The graphic below (click it to make it bigger) has three windows. The top left window is the outlook from the SPC. The area outlined by the red line is the moderate risk area. It covers about three-fourths of Mississippi and just about all of Alabama. I don't show it here, but within than moderate risk area is a 15% chance of strong tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. Strong tornadoes are those EF-2 or higher. Back to the graphic....the bottom-left screen shows surface dewpoints at 4PM. You will hear many people call the surface feature moving in a cold front. Well, there will be a cold front that eventually moves through, but the surface feature that will aid in storm development is called a dry line. The dry line is a feature that is very common in the Plains, especially Oklahoma and Texas. Like a cold front, the dry line is boundary. It separates warm, humid air to the right of the dry line from hot, dry (less humid) air to the left of it. Normally the dry line does not make it this far east, but it will this afternoon. As it combines with our muggy, warm air mass along with strong upper level winds (large screen on graphic), severe storm development is almost certain. Storms and the severe weather threat will end from west to east immediately as the dry line moves across. You should also notice a pretty quick drop off in how humid it feels once it passes.

Unfortunately, I can't get any other model graphics to upload. But let me go ahead and discuss timing. If you live west of the I-55 corridor, your severe weather chances will end by about 2PM. Those areas east of the I-55 corridor will see the risk of severe storms continue into the early evening, but most of the storms will be out of our coverage area by 6PM and the severe weather should be out of Mississippi by 8PM.

Most of the storms we see today will be scattered in nature. This is part of why they will be quite dangerous as they will be out on their own and really be able to take full advantage of the environment they are in. But due to the scattered nature of the storms, some of you won't even see a drop of rain today. I wish it were possible to be able to say that X, Y, and Z counties will for sure have storms, but if that were possible, I would be a rich man. ALL of Mississippi needs to be weather aware today, but especially those areas east of I-55 as those areas will likely have an enhanced risk of significant severe weather due to the best dynamics and features arriving at the time of peak heating.

Please make sure to follow me on Twitter @EricLawWLBT or on Facebook at facebook.com/TVEric as that is where I will be micro-blogging updates. IF I have time later this morning, I may make a quick post on here. As I've been typing this, a Tornado Watch has been issued for much of north and western parts of Mississippi. It goes til 10am, but I'm sure we will see more watches issued further east later this morning.

It is a little after 3AM and I've got to get some rest. Long day ahead!

Be safe today and take all warnings seriously!

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Storms Return Friday

2011-04-13T09:52:00.000-05:00

'Tis the season for severe weather in Mississippi. We are now in what is typically the peak of our spring severe weather season. There won't be any shortage of storms on Friday as our next weather system has the potential to be quite potent. This may be our "big" event of the year. In fact, I am so concerned about it, I have postponed my scheduled vacation (I was supposed to leave today) so that I can be here to help with severe weather coverage on Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center has put much Mississippi in a slight risk of severe storms. I fully expect parts of the area to be upgraded to a moderate risk in their Thursday update. Friday's system, in my opinion, could end up being the first high risk event of 2011. We had a high risk of severe weather on April 24, 2010, the day of the long track Yazoo City tornado. That's not to say we'll have a 150 mile tracking tornado on Friday, but it could still be pretty nasty for some areas. If not us, then close by.

Click the graphic below to see the current severe weather probabilities. Note the hatched area along and east of the I-55 corridor.

The rest of the maps below are from the NAM model and are for early Friday afternoon.

This first map shows storms developing across Mississippi. The main upper level system stays well to our northwest back over Kansas and Missouri.

The next two maps are surface temperatures and surface dew points (moisture). We'll easily have temperatures well into the 70s, if not some 80s on Friday.

This data suggests dew points will be in the mid to upper 60s....more than enough juice to have severe storms.

This next map shows the winds at about 30,000 feet above the surface. The purple colors are the strongest winds. This data shows that those strong to our west early Friday afternoon may help to strengthen the storm system as those winds spread out over Mississippi.

This final map plots the forecast EHI or Energy Helicity Index. This is a good indicator of tornado potential as it combines CAPE (instability) with helicity (a combination of low-level wind shear and wind blowing into that shear). Note the yellows and orange colors in areas east of I-55. This is where my eye brows raise and it indicates a possibility of strong tornadoes IF this model data is correct.

RARELY do severe weather set-ups work out exactly how models forecast. The system is just beginning to come ashore on the west coast now and it will soon be in the range of the upper air network. That is to say the weather balloons that get released all across the country will be able to get data from the storm. This data will help the computer models (hopefully) come up with a more accurate forecast.

There are a couple of things to watch out for. 1) Timing. This is key. Everything has to come together at the right time in order for there to be a big severe weather outbreak. 2) CAP - I've talked about this before. A cap is a layer of warmer air aloft that acts like a lid on a boiling pan of water. The lid keeps water from boiling over at first just as in the cap keeps air from being able to rise and storms from forming. Eventually the water in the pan will boil so hard and strong that it overcomes the lid and boils over. A similar thing applies in meteorology. Eventually the weather system will strengthen to the point it can overcome the cap - the atmosphere's lid - and volatile storms will form. There will be a cap on Friday. The question is does it break early in the day so we see multiple rounds of storms? Or does it hang on most of Friday and we get only one round of storms or no storms at all?

I'll post another discussion tomorrow as things become clearer. In the meantime, today's weather is outstanding. Get out and enjoy it! I'm going to go unpack...

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

8:30AM Weather Update

2011-04-04T08:54:00.000-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas north of I-20 in a Moderate Risk of severe storms, with a Slight Risk for areas south of I-20. The map below are the latest damaging wind probabilities from the SPC. You can see central and north Mississippi are in the 45% range.

I see no reason to make any changes with the forecast. We've already got a strong squall line developing in east Texas. There are Severe T-Storm Warnings on the entire line. Here is the radar as of 8:33am CDT.

The data from the weather balloon launch a couple of hours ago shows that we have a layer of warmer air aloft. This is called ac cap. It acts like a lid and makes it harder for clouds to build up to form storms. This will be weakening later today, but it should hold off storms until at least early afternoon.

The window for storms will be brief. The time frame of 1pm-7pm still seems to fit. I don't see storms forming prior to 1pm and the squall line should move through pretty fast, so things should be out by 7pm, if not before.

Strong straight-line winds will be the big threat today, but some tornadoes are possible in any storms that develop ahead of the squall line. There could be a few quick spin-up tornadoes within the squall line as well.

I've had an unusual number of messages about today being just like April 24, 2010 - the day of the Yazoo City tornado. I want to stress the set-up for today is a lot different than April 24th. I do not anticipate strong tornadoes today. That does not mean you should not pay attention to the weather, but I don't want to mislead you either. Any tornado can be bad if it hits a populated area. But, we're not going to see long tracking EF-4 tornadoes today, at least not here, regardless of what you may hear (so I'm told) on a certain national weather network.

We'll probably see some sort of watch or perhaps a couple of watches posted by late morning. I could see a Tornado watch for the entire area, or perhaps just for I-20 and north, with a Severe T-Storm Watch for south of I-20. I would bet on the Tornado Watch for the entire area though.

That's all for now. Follow me on Twitter @EricLawWLBT for more updates throughout the day.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Monday's Storms

2011-04-03T22:05:00.000-05:00

Things are still a go for severe storms tomorrow. Our time frame is going to be from about 1PM-7PM for the entire area, with the initial storms developing quickly after lunchtime.

The is the newest data from our high resolution StormCast model. The map below shows just how unstable the atmosphere will be, with moderate instability developing by 3PM over a large part of the area. The higher the instability, the easier it is for the air to rise, forming clouds and eventually storms.

The air won't have any issues rising tomorrow afternoon with a potent upper level disturbance and strong surface cold front arriving in time for our peak afternoon heating.

Large hail and damaging straight-line winds will be the main risks, BUT early on storms will be out on their own and tornadoes will be quite possible with those storms. By 4PM-5PM the storms should evolve into a squall line. At that time the tornado threat will begin to go down with damaging straight-line winds being quite likely.

Things to watch out for tomorrow will be adjustments in timing as well as a cap (warmer temperatures aloft) hanging on longer than expected. The cap works against storms, but I think we will have enough instability around to break that cap pretty quick by mid-afternoon.

I'll post an update around 9AM tomorrow.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Viewer E-Mails & More Storms

2011-04-01T11:01:00.000-05:00

I've been doing weather on TV for almost 10 years (that can't be true, can it?) One thing I had to learn early in this business is to let things that people say roll off your back. Everyone in TV gets a nasty email or gets told a snide remark in public. There are angry phone calls, too. In the weather world, nothing brings out the complaints like interrupting a television program for severe weather. You wouldn't believe some of the things that people say or write. A lot of times they do not leave their name. From time to time, I share some of these e-mails with you, if only to illustrate how self-centered some people can be. Thankfully, these folks are a vocal minority and in no way do they represent the opinion of the vast majority of viewers. Unfortunately, most people that appreciate the weather coverage don't call or e-mail. Facebook and Twitter have helped to even the playing field though. On Tuesday night, I had over 150 comments or posts left on my personal Facebook page, thanking me for my weather coverage. There were a few negative e-mails, too. Here is one that arrived in my inbox from a woman named Cynthia in Brookhaven.

"I can understand why weather alerts are necessary, however the Biggest Loser was virtually ruined by/with the repetitive, frequent interruptions! Instead of using the space at the bottom of the screen for a continual update, Eric Law seemed to time his constant interruptive updates with the weigh-ins which is what the viewer (me) is eagerly waiting to see! Other stations do a better job of allowing viewers to see the main points of a show. Surely once a viewer sees and hears that hail, rain, wind or whatever is headed their way, why do the rest of us have to be subjected to a blow-by-blow account every few minutes??? P-L-E-A-S-E don’t keep ruining our shows with this type of stuff!!!!"

I think we are in all agreement that a weigh-in on a reality TV show is clearly more important than life-threatening weather. What was I thinking? [sarcasm]

Seriously. I just don't get it.

I record a lot of shows on DVR. I can't count the times I've been watching a Law & Order episode on DVR and get to near the end of the show, then boom! A weather cut-in. "Great," I think "I have no idea if he was found guilty or not guilty." But, you know what I do? I log on to nbc.com and I watch the end of the show. No harm done.

But we don't only get it from that side. Check out these comments left on the First Alert Weather Fan Page, also from late Tuesday night.

In the case that Darlene was referencing, there was no warning on the storms. There was very heavy rain, some lightning, and perhaps some 40mph wind gusts and some pea size hail. There were never any reports of gusty winds or hail though, but it was possible based on radar data. There was a Tornado Watch in effect.

There was no need to cut-in. The crawl, which was updated several times, got the point across. I was on Facebook and Twitter providing updates as well.

The moral of the all of this is no matter what we do, we are not going to make people happy. WLBT has a severe weather policy. I follow that policy very closely. There are a lot of factors to weigh when doing severe weather coverage. We're not only watching storms, we're talking to the National Weather Service, sending storm reports to the newsroom, calling our weather watchers, and sending out updates on wlbt.com, Facebook, and Twitter. There is a lot that goes on and a lot of keep up with. I think there is always room to improve, so feedback from viewers can be good. But, hateful e-mails and threatening phone calls do not accomplish anything.

We'll probably have more e-mails next week. Looking ahead to Monday and Tuesday, storms will be returning and severe weather seems likely.

The map above (click to enlarge) shows some high instability heading up into south Mississippi Monday afternoon. This is no guarantee of storms, but IF storms do develop, they will have some good juice to work with and could get quite strong. I'll be watching this next system closely and will blog an update tomorrow evening.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Last Night's Storms

2011-03-30T19:22:00.000-05:00

Wow, last night was an incredible night covering severe weather. Normally hail is not as big of a deal around here. That wasn't the case last night. Hail definitely lead the night with hen egg and tennis ball size hail reports coming in from central and south Mississippi. Golf ball size hail was common in just about all of the thunderstorms. More on the hail later.

As I expected, the tornado and wind threats were very small. There was wind damage in parts of Hinds, Copiah and Simpson counties. The National Weather Service sent teams into some of those areas to survey the damage. Their report came down this afternoon. Here it is:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
332 PM CST WED MAR 30 2011

...STORM SURVEY DETERMINES THAT WIND DAMAGE IN SIMPSON AND COPIAH
COUNTIES WAS DUE TO STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...

...PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY INFORMATION...

COUNTY: SIMPSON
SUMMARY OF WIND DAMAGE: A MACROBURST OCCURRED IN NORTHWEST SIMPSON
COUNTY ALONG AND NEAR OLD PEARL ROAD. THE DAMAGE WAS WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WORST DAMAGE OCCURRING FROM CRISCO ROAD TO
LEWIS ROAD SOUTH. NUMEROUS HARDWOOD AND SOFTWOOD TREES WERE UPROOTED
AND SNAPPED IN THE DAMAGE AREA. SEVERAL TREES FELL ON HOMES AND
OUTBUILDINGS CAUSING SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. MAXIMUM WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED TO BE 110 MPH FROM CRISCO ROAD TO LEWIS ROAD SOUTH.

SUMMARY OF HAIL: REPORTS INDICATE THAT HAIL AT LEAST AS LARGE AS
GOLF BALLS FELL IN THE SAME AREA FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME.
HAIL ACCUMULATED 4 INCHES DEEP ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW SPOTS
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 1 FOOT DEEP. SOME ROOF AND SIDING DAMAGE WAS
CAUSED BY THE WIND DRIVEN HAIL. THE HAIL CAUSED WIDESPREAD LEAF AND
PINE NEEDLES TO BE STRIPPED FROM THE TREES.

COUNTY: COPIAH
SUMMARY OF WIND DAMAGE: NUMEROUS TREES WERE UPROOTED AND SNAPPED IN
AND TO THE NORTH OF CRYSTAL SPRINGS. SEVERAL OF THE TREES FELL ON
HOMES CAUSING STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. TO THE NORTH OF CRYSTAL SPRINGS...A
METAL BUILDING HAD TWO WALLS BLOWN OUT. MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
TO BE 90 MPH IN THE COUNTY.

As word got out that the storm surveys concluded the wind damage was caused by straight-line winds, I heard some complaints from people.

No doubt trying to determine if the damage was due to a tornado or straight-line winds can be hard. There was a tornado warning out. There was, albeit a weak, circulation in the storm. Determining the damage to be caused by a tornado would actually would help verify the tornado warning. But, in this case, the survey team from the weather service looked at the damage, compared it to the radar images, and ultimately decided that straight-line winds and wind driven large hail caused the damage in the Crystal Springs and in northwest Simpson County. Now, it is easily overlooked, but this damage survey is PRELIMINARY, so there is always a chance if new damage is discovered and checked out, there could be some changes made to the report. This is why it is very important that if you have damage or you have strong winds or hail, you should report it either to WLBT, the NWS, or your local emergency management officials.

Let's go with assuming that the damage was all straight-line wind or hail. Straight-line winds can be over 100mph. Heck, winds in a hurricane are a type of straight-line wind. We all know how strong those can be. In the Simpson County case, the straight-line winds were believed to be caused by something called a macroburst (more on that in a second) and are estimated to have been about 100-110mph in Simpson County. To put that in perspective, those winds are what you'd find in a strong Category 2 hurricane!

A macroburst is a large scale downburst. Downbursts are common in thunderstorms. Downbursts are created when rain-cooled air falling in the downdraft part of a thunderstorm helps to bring the strong winds inside the storm down to the ground. When those strong winds hit the ground, they fan out. The net result is very strong winds at the surface, just like what happened last night. The intensity of last night's downburst is rare for this part of the country. In fact, I'm not sure in my 7 years in Mississippi I've seen straight-line thunderstorm winds that strong. Downbursts are a big threat to air planes landing or taking off as well.

This graphic helps to illustrate downbrust winds. You can click it to make it larger.

When storm surveys are done, meteorologists look at the damage pattern to determine if the damage was done by a tornado, straight-line winds, or even hail.

Damage from straight-line winds, like from a microburst (small scale) or macroburst (larger scale), will generally be pointed in the same direction and have a diverging pattern to the damage. Tornadic damage, on the other hand, will have a cyclonic (in most cases) pattern to the damage. Sometimes survey teams have to look at the damage from an airplane to get a better idea. I do not know if that was done in the Copiah and Simpson county cases.

Below are two examples of each kind of damage. Can you see the difference?

Regardless of if it was tornado damage or straight-line wind damage, insurance policies will cover it. If you have one that doesn't or the insurance company tries to tell you it won't cover straight-line wind damage, but it will tornado damage, I'd advise you to read over the fine print in your policy and do some investigating of your own.

The wind driven hail also caused a lot of the damage. That may have an impact on some insurance policies? I'm not really sure.

Let's talk about the hail....it was INCREDIBLE. Not only the size, but the amount. Check out this picture from Simpson County. This was taken after sunrise and hail was still on the ground!

There are several reports of hail drifts up to a FOOT deep. WLBT's David Kenny, who covered Simpson County today, says that hail was still on the ground this afternoon. That's nuts! I will be interested to see how that compares to other hail storms in Mississippi. Let me tell you, it is rare ANYWHERE!

By the way, I still want hail pictures. If you have anything, especially hail coating the ground, please send them to me at elaw@wlbt.com. I will be able to use them in future weather talks and the National Weather Service would also like to look at them.

Suffice to say, if this storm had moved over a populated area, like the Jackson Metro, we'd be talking about hail damage in the multi-millions of dollars.

I'm planning to blog on some more things tomorrow. Probably about the complaints from our weather coverage.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Tsunami

2011-03-11T13:20:00.000-06:00

Many of you have been watching the global news coverage of the Japan earthquake and the resulting tsunami. I wanted to share with you this neat animation from NOAA that shows the forecast wave height from the tsunami.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Tornadoes & Flooding Tonight

2011-03-08T13:18:00.001-06:00

The SPC has upgraded southwest Mississippi to a Moderate Risk of severe weather, including an enhanced risk for strong tornadoes (EF-2 or higher). Click the maps below to make them larger.

The map below plots the wind barbs, temperature and dewpoint (moisture). The shaded areas of green represent dewpoints in 60 or above. You can "feel" the "humidity" when the dewpoint gets to 60, and it only get more humid from there.

It is a little uncertain how far north the 60s dewpoints will make it, but it is possible they could get far enough to make strong tornadoes a possibility north of I-20.

Instability is still not the best further northeast. The latest run of the NAM model shows the best combo of instability and wind shear meeting up across southwest Mississippi around 3am Wednesday.

Damaging winds over 70 mph will be possible in the strongest storms, along with hail up to golfballs, maybe larger.

What is a little troublesome to me is the potential to very high rainfall totals. The WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model brings widespread 2"-5" rain totals, with local amounts as much as 7". Here is the 24 hour rainfall forecast from the WRF, ending at 6am Wednesday. The legend is along the left side of the graphic. You can click the graphic to enlarge it.

If you live in an area that floods, you will really want to be watching for storms to move over your area repeatedly. If that starts happening, the flood risk will be very high. Some of these same areas picked up 2-3" of rain over the weekend.

Everyone needs to be weather aware from 6PM Tuesday-8AM Wednesday. If you have a weather radio and it needs to be programmed, you can click here for help with that. Also be sure to follow me on Twitter as I'll be sending out updates the rest of the day and especially tonight. I know some of you depend on Facebook for weather information. I want to stress you should not wait for us to post weather information to Facebook. We will try to keep it updated, but if we have a lot of warnings, that won't be possible. Twitter is a far better way to get the information than Facebook. Also, you can check the radar here or from your phone by going here.

I will likely post a brief update on the blog this evening.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Severe Storms Early Wednesday?

2011-03-07T09:33:00.000-06:00

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK has put western parts of the area in a Slight Risk for severe storms late Tuesday (first map). The highest probabilities for tornadoes, possibly strong, will be in two areas (second map). The first area to our west-northwest across much of Arkansas, and the second area to our south across Louisiana. This outlooks are valid from 6am Tuesday -6am Wednesday.

The SPC has also put much of our area in a Slight Risk for severe storms for Wednesday as well. See map below.

I'm not fully biting into the chances for severe weather just yet. To get thunderstorms and severe weather, there are three big things we look at. 1. Lift to help generate clouds and precipitation. 2. Wind shear (wind increasing in speed and changing direction with height) to help thunderstorm to rotate. 3. Instability to help fuel storms. Tuesday night and Wednesday we'll have numbers 1 and 2, but I'm not sure we'll have number 3 in place. Here is why:

Very dry air moved into our area following the system that brought rain to the area on Saturday. The map below shows that the best moisture (dewpoints) are well down into the Gulf of Mexico as evidence by the green colors on the map below.

With such very dry air in place, there is some question as to wheather or not sufficent moisture can return to our area in time for next storm system, and if it does, will it be enough to help fuel severe thunderstorms? The computer models disagree on this.

The next two maps are forecast instability for 6am Wednesday. The first map is the GFS model, the second map is the NAM model.

When you combine the areas of best instability with the best wind shear, you get the this:

So the bottom line is that we have two chances to watch for storms and severe weather. The first late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, if storms that form to our west during the day Tuesday can hold together all night. If we don't have the instability in place to help sustain them, they will weaken and we'll end up with mostly heavy rain. If we are able to get severe weather, it would mainly be areas south of I-20. Damaging striaght-line winds, large hail and a couple of tornadoes would be possible.

We may have a second chance to see storms depending on the speed of the cold front. The GFS model is faster than the NAM. If the front slows down and comes through later on Wednesday, we may have a chance to warm-up and increase the instability across the area for the front to work with. By then the best winds will be moving away from us. If this happens though, damaging winds and hail would still be a threat.

We're still 36-48 hours away from this event and in the weather world that is a lot of time! The finer details of the forecast will be ironed out closer to the event, but you probably already know that sometimes we have to just constantly monitor the atmosphere to see how it is changing after the event starts. It is important to stay weather aware over the next couple of days, no matter where you live in Mississippi. Severe weather or not, we're likely going to see some good downpours. The GFS brings over an 1" of rain to the area with this system.

Be sure to check me out on Twitter as I'll be posting some more thoughts as we get closer to Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Eric, What's That On Your Shoulder?

2011-03-05T08:03:00.000-06:00

Some viewers have very sharp eyes. That can be a good thing. It is a bad thing when they notice something you hope they wouldn't.

This morning, if you watched our morning news, you may have noticed a white smudge on my suit jacket (see photo below).

I got several Tweets on this and an e-mail (and no doubt there is an e-mail in my boss' inbox). I said I would explain on the blog, so here goes.

Wednesday was Read Across America Day, in celebration of Dr. Seuss' birthday. I visited numerous schools across our area to read to school children. The suit I wore this morning is the same one I wore to read to school kids on Wednesday.

In many of the classes I visited, children and teachers were dressed up as their favorite Dr. Seuss character, some of which were wearing make-up. Whenever I am out speaking to the public, there are always people wanting pictures. During one of the picture taking sessions, someone wearing make-up brushed up against my suit jacket. I saw it at the time, but wasn't in a position to clean it off. I had planned to take it to the dry cleaner, but in the meantime forgot about the make-up smudge....that is, until this morning. Actually, I did not even notice it. Our studio crew didn't notice it. It wasn't until 45 minutes into the show that our director inquired what was the smudge on my right shoulder. Unfortunately, this was right as I was about to go on the air. There was nothing I could do, other than I did try to avoid showing that shoulder as much as possible. Viewers watching on wide screen televisions probably saw it most of the time.

The mystery is solved and the suit will be taken by the cleaners on Monday. Now get ready for some rain today, with a few heavy storms possible in southeast Mississippi.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

1-2" Rain & Heavy Storms Today-Saturday

2011-03-04T02:36:00.000-06:00

The map above from the HPC shows the total rainfall forecast through 6am Sunday. Notice most of Mississippi is outlined in the 1-2" rainfall category, with areas along and east of I-55 picking up the most rain. In fact, some areas in east Mississippi could see in excess of 2" of rain.

Not only will heavy rain be a concern, but there may be some strong thunderstorms as well. The map below shows the areas that have the best instability remain to our west today.

And here is how the instability shapes up for Saturday...

While some heavy storms are likely, the overall risk of severe weather is iffy and may end up only being isolated and confined to southeast parts of the state. If there are any warnings, they will likely be of the T-Storm Warning variety for damaging winds and hail.

Definitely carry the umbrella with you today and tomorrow as rain chances are high for just about everywhere. The good news is that Sunday is looking nice!

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Brian Williams' Ties

2011-03-03T11:58:00.000-06:00

I've often admired the ties that NBC Nightly News anchor Brian Williams wears. They are striped. Bright. Bold. They're eye-catching. They're exactly what TV news consultants like to see anchors wear. They do make one look sharp. If you watch me regularly, you may notice it is the style I typically wear. Apparently I'm not the only one that likes his ties. While doing some research for this post, I ran across a blog, run by a high school English teacher, that keeps track of the ties that he wears each night.

Last night Kristina and I turned on WLBT to watch NBC Nightly News. Within the first minute we were struck by what we saw. Here is the video from last night. See if you spot it. Hint: Keep a close eye on Brian's tie.

Did you catch it?

My initial thought was that the news open was taped. Working in TV and knowing how things work, I could see that being a possibility and perhaps he spilled something on his tie. It's happened to me and I've had to swap ties between shows.

I tweeted my observation to Brian Williams and NBC Nightly News. I actually got a response. Here it is:

And so, this morning we wait to learn the mystery behind the tie swap. Brian was on Jimmy Fallon last night, so maybe that had something to do with it? We'll see. The guy still wears the best ties!

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Severe Weather Bust?

2011-02-28T08:35:00.001-06:00

If you've been up for long and peaked at the radar, you'll see that not much is going on across our area. Remember, at this point, I was expecting storms to be ongoing across our Mississippi Delta counties. I was also expecting that southwest Mississippi would remain mostly storm-free due to warmer temperatures aloft preventing storms from becoming organized. This warmer air aloft is called a "cap" and it helps to stabilize the atmosphere. This is why we had no storms over our area yesterday (which was expected). It is also why my forecast was for only isolated severe storms along the I-20 corridor, versus a more scattered nature to the severe storms, like they are seeing further north.

Data from the weather balloon launched by the Jackson National Weather Service at 6am this morning shows that the warmer temperatures above the ground (the cap) have been stubborn to weaken. In fact, they are actually warmer than forecast by the models. This is why storms have not been able to develop across the Delta counties, despite the presence of the frontal boundary nearing that area. Essentially the front is not strong enough to overcome that layer of warmer air aloft, so any storms that try to develop get quashed.

Satellite imagery shows some breaks in the clouds this morning and this MAY allow for storms to develop further south along the front by late morning and into this afternoon as we'll then have the combination of the front (providing "lift") and daytime heating (providing more instability). The combination of the two MAY be enough to overcome this cap, especially if it weakens as model data suggests. But, again, models over estimated the strength of the cap this morning, so it isn't etched in stone that they've not done the same thing for this afternoon.

If, in fact, we are able to see storms form further south in Mississippi, it will probably be after the front has cleared the western parts of the area. So, most areas west of the I-55 corridor may actually miss out in seeing any rain today. Also, as the main storm system will be pulling away from us later this morning, winds will become less favorable for tornadic development, so if storms do get going along the front later today, the severe threat will be confined to damaging straight-line winds and large hail, so that part of my forecast remains in place.

So, to answer the question raised in this blog post's title, "Is it a severe weather bust?" It certainly is for the Delta counties. I underestimated the strength and duration of the cap there. The forecast has panned out for southwest Mississippi, where I really did not expect much in the way of rain or storms due to the cap being stronger in that part of the state and the fact the main storm system was well north of that area. I still think isolated severe weather will be possible along and east of the I-55 corridor, so that forecast is not a bust...yet. The atmosphere is loaded and ready to go, so if the cap is broken, storms will form and they will become severe with strong winds and hail being the primary threat. If the cap is not broken, it will just be a breezy, warm day.

The Jackson National Weather Service will likely release another weather balloon later this morning ~~(still awaiting on a decision as to whether it will be 9am or 12pm)~~. Just heard from the weather service they will send up another weather balloon at 10am. Should have some early data by 10:15-10:30am. That data will be able to tell us how the atmosphere is shaping up. Follow me on Twitter for updates as things develop the rest of the day.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Monday Morning Storm Potential

2011-02-27T08:21:00.000-06:00

Today will remain storm-free for central and south Mississippi. As I mentioned yesterday, we have some warmer air aloft, called a cap. This will help to keep the atmosphere in what we call a "conditionally unstable" condition. This means that the atmosphere would be unstable if something happened. In this case, if the cap were to break, then the atmosphere would be unstable and storms would form. The cap will be quite strong later today and this evening, so I don't think there is much chance for storms to form today. That will change by Monday morning as a strong cold front moves into the region. This will help create the "lift" needed to overcome the cap.

The next two maps show the time frame for storms for your area, along with the nature of severe weather, if any, I expect for your area. You can click on these graphics to make them larger.

Thankfully it appears most of our coverage area will not have to worry about the real nasty storms. But, if you live in Issaquena, Sharkey, Humphreys, Holmes, Yazoo, and Attala counties, you really need to be weather aware tomorrow as those areas will have the best chance to see golfball size hail, 75mph winds, and possibly a strong tornado or two. There is still a somewhat smaller chance for one of the nasty storms to develop as far south the I-20 corridor, but the best chances are across the Delta and closer to Highway 82. As for south Mississippi, the southwestern part of the state (Natchez area) may not get too much rain or storms out of this. The main system is passing well north of that area and it looks like the front will be coming through prior to daytime heating cranking up. Plus, the cap will be a little more stubborn to get rid of across that part of the state. BUT, if a storm or two can get going, it would be severe and it would be quite nasty. So, even though this part of the state has a lesser chance for severe weather compared to other areas, the severe weather risk is NOT zero. Finally, southeast Mississippi will have a little better chance at some severe storms tomorrow afternoon as the front will be coming through during peak afternoon heating, which will help to overcome the cap and fuel severe storms. By the time this happens, the front should be just about out of our coverage area. However, if the front moves slower than I expect, that may increase the risk of severe storms for areas like Collins, Prentiss, Raleigh, and Monticello.

The next three graphics are from the StormCast model we run in the WLBT Weather Center. We run it 4 times a day. This is just a model, but it does give you an idea of how things may unfold tomorrow. You can click these images to make them larger.

I will be checking out new data this afternoon and have the latest tonight on WLBT at 5PM, 10PM and 10:30PM. Normally I would be in to assist with severe weather coverage, but I'm scheduled to work for Barbie tomorrow afternoon, so Paul may be on his own for the on-air stuff. It is possible that schedule will get adjusted. Regardless, I will be covering the storms online from home, if I am not in the studio. Be sure to follow me on Twitter by clicking here. Twitter is AWESOME and a great way to get weather information FAST. It is sometimes faster than TV!

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Slight Risk For Severe Storms Monday Morning

2011-02-26T08:01:00.000-06:00

An area of low pressure will track well to our northwest Sunday night and Monday morning. The low will help push a cold front into the Deep South early Monday morning. This cold front will bring a line of thunderstorms through the area.

The Storm Prediction Center has put areas northwest of the Natchez Trace Parkway in a Slight Risk of severe weather for late tomorrow. The Slight Risk area shifts to cover areas along and east of the I-55 corridor from Tennessee down to the I-20 corridor for Monday morning. I'm not entirely confident this will be that big of a severe event for us. Let me explain...

Storms will have a hard time firing off during the daytime hours on Sunday. This will be due to a layer of warmer air about 4,000-5,000 feet above the ground. We call this layer of warmer air a "cap" or "lid". It essentially keeps the atmosphere stable and storms from forming. The cap can be broken by strong lift. This can be in the form a cold front or even daytime heating. Though temperatures will warm to near 80 on Sunday, it looks like the cap will be fairly strong, so it will likely need to wait on the cold front, that will be developing to the west on Sunday, to break it. Once that happens, we will have storms. The National Weather Service will use data collected from weather balloons to gauge the strength of the cap. I won't rule out an isolated storm during the daytime hours Sunday, but I would not bet on it. In fact, most of Sunday evening and quite possibly most of Sunday night will be storm-free for many of you. Model data shows that cold front will not arrive until Monday morning, so it is possible storms will impact your Monday morning commute.

Let's dive into the severe chances with this system...

As I noted above...the SPC has put north Mississippi in a Slight Risk of severe storms. It looks like the greatest severe threat will actually be up around the Memphis area, once storms actually do form. The map below shows EHI. This stands for the Energy Helicity Index. That's one of those fancy "meteorological" terms, but it essentially shows us where the best instability (how easy it is for the air to rise) will combine with the best wind shear (changing of wind direction and speed from the ground into the clouds). Areas where these two combine forces will have the best chance to see tornadoes and severe storms.

The model data in the map shows areas from the Mississippi Delta, around Greenville, all the way up to southern Illinois has the higher EHI values. Those EHI values are highest along the Arkansas/Tennessee/Mississippi border. It is these areas that have the highest tornado potential and there may even be a few strong tornadoes in those areas. Golf ball size hail and damaging straight-line winds are also likely. We may see the SPC upgrade this area to a Moderate Risk tomorrow.

The reason the best tornado risk will remain to our north is because of the track of the low pressure system. If it were to track further south (possible, but not likely), then our tornado risk would increase significantly in central Mississippi. Right now it appears the same areas that saw tornado warnings on Thursday night will have a chance again late Sunday night and Monday morning. Areas south of I-20 will see some heavy storms, but not much in the way of severe weather and I really don't see much of a tornado risk in those areas.

The time frame for storms on Monday looks to be about 3AM-7AM for the Delta, 5AM-9AM for west-central and south Mississippi, 7AM-11AM for the I-55 corridor, and 10AM-2PM for east Mississippi.

Check back tomorrow by early afternoon for an update on this storm system and be sure to follow me on Twitter for my thoughts as new data comes in today and tomorrow.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Severe Weather Awareness Week: Day 5 - Flash Flooding

2011-02-25T13:04:00.000-06:00

Today brings an end to Severe Weather Awareness week. Hopefully you have taken some time to come up with a severe weather plan, or even buy a weather radio. If not, please do this. More severe weather is expected on Sunday.

When we think of severe weather, we often think of strong winds and tornadoes, maybe even hail. However, one of the biggest threats and the number one severe weather killer is actually flash flooding. From 1980-2009, an average of 93 people were killed each year due to flooding.

What is flash flooding? Flash flooding is when there is a fast rise of water due to slow moving heavy storms. Flash flooding can also happen when rain or storms move over the same areas in a short period of time. This is called storm training. Flash flooding can occur in a "flash" and without warning. The intensity of the rain and duration of rainfall are the biggest factors that contribute to flash flooding.

Few people realize the force behind moving water. Moving water can have enough power to push just about anything out of its path and it can be especially deceptive to drivers. Driving into flood waters can stall your vehicle as the water is often deeper than you think. It is also possible that the ground has been washed away. If either of these situations happen, you and your vehicle could be swept away, possibly being seriously injured or killed. A good rule to remember is "turn around don't drown."

An example of what NOT to do during flooding events.

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service will issue a Flash Flood Watch when heavy rains are expected to produce flash flooding. A watch may be issued a day in advance of the event. A Flash Flood Warning means that flash flooding is occurring right now or is imminent. When a warning is issued, this is the time to move to higher ground, especially if you live near a river, creek, stream, etc.

Keep in mind that non-severe thunderstorms can produce flash flooding. If you are driving during a thunderstorm, you will want to watch for flooding in areas like highway dips, bridges, and other low areas. Be especially careful at night when it is even harder to recognize flood dangers. One should also be careful while camping during heavy rains. Do not cross fast flowing streams where the water is more than a 2-3 inches high.

Other types of flooding such as river flooding can be just as dangerous. In these situations, the water won't rise as fast as in a flash flooding event, but the same rules apply when it comes to protecting your life.

Finally, keep in mind most home owners insurance polices do not include coverage for water damage caused by flooding. For more information on this, please click here.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Severe Weather Awareness Week: Day 4 - Lightning

2011-02-25T11:56:00.000-06:00

All thunderstorms produce lightning. Some people are deathly afraid of lightning. Others will never think twice about walking out into a thunderstorm. From 1980-2009, on average lightning killed as many people each year as tornadoes. During that same period, it averaged more deaths than hurricanes. From 1959-2009, lightning killed 109 people in Mississippi, ranking it 15th in the country for the number of fatalities during that time period.

When lightning strikes, it can heat the air around it to nearly 54,000°F. This is almost six times hotter than the surface of the sun! Most people are killed by lightning during the warm months of the year. This is mainly because the days are longer and people often spend more time outdoors. Plus, spring and summer heat helps fuel thunderstorms which by definition produce lightning. Keep in mind that lightning is just as deadly during the winter months and just as deadly regardless of the time of day.

There are many myths about lightning. Here are some lighting facts that will hopefully clear up any myths you have heard.

Lightning can strike the same place more than once.
Lightning can strike even when there is no cloud overhead and no rain. "Bolts from the blue" have been known to strike up to 15 miles from the center of a thunderstorm.
Cars with a metal roof and metal sides can protect you from lightning. It has nothing to do with the tires.
It is completely safe to administer CPR to someone who has been struck by lightning (or electrocuted in some other manner).
It is not safe to seek shelter under a tree. This is actually the 2nd leading activity for lightning fatalities.
Cell phones are safe to use during a thunderstorm, assuming they are not plugged in being charged. You do, however, want to avoid corded phones.
As soon as you hear thunder, it is time to get indoors and seek safe shelter. You can resume outdoor activities once the thunderstorm has moved away and you can no longer hear thunder, assuming there has been no damage from a thunderstorm's winds or tornado.
Metal does not attract lightning, but it does conduct it. Lightning can strike anything, but objects like metal fences and even your body can become easy routes for lightning to travel, if it strikes nearby. This is why it is important to get to a safe shelter as soon as possible.
Lying flat on the ground to avoid a lightning strike will increase your risk of getting ground current.
Thunder cannot hurt you.

If you are caught outside in a thunderstorm, you need to seek shelter right away. Head to a sturdy building. If you can't get into a building, you can get into your car. Cars made mostly of metal will offer the best protection.

If you get into a vehicle, keep in mind that power lines have been known to fall on cars due to strong winds produced by a thunderstorm. If this happens, you want to remain in the car until help has arrived and the power has been shut off to the power line. You are perfectly safe inside the car. If there is a life-threatening emergency (the car catches on fire), there is a certain way you will need to get out of the car. The video below will show you what to do if you MUST exit a vehicle that has a downed power line on it.

If you are outside and can't seek shelter in a building or vehicle, here are some things to avoid: Areas of water, metal equipment, tractors, motorcycles, scooters, and golf carts. Also, put down sporting equipment like golf clubs and metal baseball bats. Do not stand under trees. Avoid wire fences, clothes lines, metal pipes, and rails. All these things could potentially offer a path for lightning to travel to you.

If outside and you feel your hair stand on end, this means that lightning is likely getting ready to strike. You will want to immediately drop to your knees and bend forward, putting your hands on your knees. Do not lie flat on the ground!

If lightning is getting ready to strike you, you want to get into this position.

For more information on lightning and interesting lightning facts, check out the National Weather Service Lightning Safety website.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Moderate Risk of Severe Weather North Mississippi; Slight Risk of Severe Weather Central Mississippi

2011-02-24T12:04:00.000-06:00

SPC Convective Outlook - Click image to enlarge.

The SPC has put the northwest part of Mississippi in a Moderate Risk for severe weather for this afternoon and tonight. Much of the rest of the state is in a Slight Risk of severe weather. This does not include areas south of Hattiesburg down to the coast.

Isolated severe storms will fire by late afternoon in the Mississippi Delta. Storms will quickly form a squall line which will race to the east. Storms will impact the Delta from late afternoon into the early evening hours. Storms will impact the I-55 corridor from mid to late evening. Finally, storms will impact east Mississippi from late evening into the wee hours of Friday morning.

Damaging straight-line winds up to 75mph are possible, with a few tornadoes also possible. The highest tornado risk is highlighted on the map below.

Tornado Probabilities - Hatched area = highest probabilities of strong tornadoes.

Again, with a lot of the storm energy passing off to our northwest, the highest severe weather threat will be confined in the Upper Delta. There may still be some severe storms further southeast, especially as the squall lines comes through, but the severe threat will be more isolated to widely scattered. Also, if you live southeast of a line from Natchez to Hazlehurst to Meridian, the risk for severe weather will be quite remote.

Hail is not as big of a threat with the storms today, but there could be some golf ball size hail in the Delta.

Stay with WLBT throughout the afternoon and evening for weather update. I'll be on Twitter all night. Follow me by clicking here.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Severe Weather Awareness Week: Day 3 - Wind & Hail

2011-02-23T10:05:00.001-06:00

In addition to tornadoes, damaging straight-line winds and large hail are also big threats from many thunderstorms we see in Mississippi. Like tornadoes, damaging straight-line winds and hail can occur any time of the year.

Severe thunderstorms often produce damaging winds or wind gusts in excess of 60mph. Sometimes these winds can even reach speeds as high as 90-100mph! That's as a high as an EF-1 tornado or even low-end Category 2 hurricane! In April of 2008, 90mph straight-line winds caused significant damage in Ridgeland, including at my very own house! Unlike tornadic winds, which cause damage to lay in a circular fashion, straight-line winds will cause damage to lay the same direction.

Thunderstorms, even those without warnings, can cause damage. Limbs weakened from past storms and trees weakened due to previous soaking rains can easily fall, even in non-severe winds. ¹

The good news is that protecting yourself from strong straight-line winds is just like how you protect yourself from tornadoes. Stay weather aware. If thunderstorms or strong winds are expected, secure any objects you have outside. Chairs, toys, and garbage cans can all become missiles in severe thunderstorms. Once it starts storming, you want to get inside and away from the weather. Head to a sturdy building and stay on the lowest level. Stay away from windows. Avoid water and stay off corded phones to avoid being struck by lightning. If there is damage following a storm, watch out for downed power lines. They could be hidden under debris. Always assume any power line is live.

Large hail (at least 1" in diameter) can damage property (cars, windows, trailers etc.) and crops. In 2005, wind-driven large hail in Yazoo County caused a significant amount of damage to houses. In some cases the hail penetrated the sides of houses or took the paint off. I also can't tell you how many cars I've seen damaged by hail. You may recall a big hail storm that moved across the Jackson Metro area a few years ago. Several days later, a lot of car dealerships were having "hail sales" due to the amount of vehicles that got damaged by the hail. In 2010, Oklahoma City, OK experienced a multi-million dollar hail storm.

A hailstone is formed formed when a tiny water droplet gets caught up in the updraft part of a thunderstorm. The updraft is where strong upward moving winds can be found. As the strong winds send the tiny water droplet higher in the air, it eventually gets to a height where it is cold enough to freeze. The water droplet will freeze on contact with tiny particles of dirt, pollens, etc. This tiny water droplet is now a tiny ice particle. Initially the tiny ice particle will be light enough to remain suspended high in thunderstorm, where temperatures are below freezing. Other tiny water droplets, which have become supercooled (cooled below the freezing point - 32° F - but isn't yet a solid) will collide with the tiny ice particle and freeze instantly. This will allow the initial tiny ice particle to grow bigger. It eventually gets heavy enough that gravity will begin to pull it down toward the ground. If the updraft winds are strong enough, they can overcome the force of gravity and send the ice particle - which is now a hailstone - back above the freezing level. The stone can grow bigger again as more supercooled water droplets collide with it and freeze. This process can repeat itself many times in the strongest thunderstorms, making for some huge hailstones that damage cars, crops, and houses. The strength of the updraft winds and the height of the freezing level ultimately determine the size of the hailstone.

If you see hail, I encourage you to report it to me when it is safe to do so.² Just note the time, location, and hail size. Here is a chart to help you determine the hail size. Please note that marbles are NOT a good estimate of hail size since marbles come in a variety of sizes.

¹ - Severe winds are those that are equal to or greater than 58mph.

² - You can send us storm reports via e-mail to elaw@wlbt.com or via Twitter by following me at http://www.twitter.com/EricLawWLBT. You can also call our newsroom at 601-960-4426.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Severe Weather Awareness Week: Day 2 - Tornadoes

2011-02-22T13:05:00.000-06:00

Spring, Summer, Fall, and Winter. They're all seasons we are familiar with. But, in Mississippi, there is a fifth season - Tornado season, and that's what we're going to talk about today.

A tornado is defined as a violently rotating column of air that is in contact with a cloud base and in contact with the ground. Most tornadoes move from southwest to northeast, but they can move in any direction. Most tornadoes rotate counter-clockwise, but roughly 2% actually rotate clockwise.

There are three main ingredients we look for in order to see tornadoes to form. They are as follows:

Warm, Moist Air - We have an ample supply of this due to our proximity to the Gulf of Mexico.
Wind Shear - This is when winds change with speed and direction as you go from the ground into the clouds. Wind shear helps a thunderstorm to turn or rotate.
A Lifter - We need something to get the air to rise. This can be a cold front or even just typical daytime heating.

When we see these three ingredients come together over us, we know we have to watch storms closely as tornadoes may form. Too little or too much of one of these ingredients can save us from having severe weather and tornadoes.

Tornadoes come in various sizes and intensity. They can be on the ground anywhere from seconds to hours. Tornadoes can occur any month of the year and any time of the day or night. Mississippi averages the most tornadoes in April, followed by November. February, March and May can be very active as well. We even see tornadoes in the summer months, often from land falling tropical systems. These tornadoes are almost always very weak and almost a different beast than what we face during our spring and fall storm seasons.

Mississippi sees most of its tornadoes between 2PM-6PM, during the peak of daytime heating. However, we can have tornadoes any time of day, if those three ingredients I talked about above are in place. We actually see a fairly good amount of nighttime tornadoes, which is why having a weather radio is so very important.

Here is a look at the number of tornadoes we've seen in recent years. Note that 28 is the average.

2010 - 41
2009 - 45
2008 - 109 (record)¹

Tornadoes are rated based on the damage they cause using the Enhanced Fujita Scale.

The revised Fujita Scale, now called the EF Scale, became operational in 2007.

Thankfully the vast majority of tornadoes are weak, and fall into the category of EF0-EF1, but Mississippi sees a fair number of stronger, long tracking tornadoes. Some of these even fall into the EF4-EF5 range. The April 24, 2010 Yazoo City tornado is a perfect example.

Since 1950, a total of 22 violent, long track (100+ miles) tornadoes have occurred in the United States. 7 of the 22 have occurred in Mississippi, more than any other state in the country! These 7 tornadoes resulted in 217 fatalities and over 2,700 injuries. Here is a graphic, courtesy of the Jackson NWS², that shows the tracks of these catastrophic tornadoes.

Violent, long tracking tornado tracks from 1950-2010. Click image to enlarge.

It is important to note that this data only goes back to 1950. There were other violent, long tracking tornadoes that struck Mississippi prior to 1950. One such tornado struck Purvis on April 24, 1908, the same day as last year's deadly Yazoo tornado. New research shows that a large part of central and south Mississippi has as much of a chance to have a tornado as central Oklahoma, which is in the heart of "Tornado Alley." In fact, this new research suggests that Smith Co., MS has the highest probability to see any tornado in a given year than any county in the country!

With such research, now more than ever is the time to come up with a severe weather plan. It starts by just watching the weather day to day, especially during the Spring and Fall storm seasons. Know what county you live in and where it is on a map. Understand the difference between a watch and a warning. Remember, a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for severe weather and tornadoes. A Tornado Warning means a tornado has either been spotted or Doppler Radar has detected a storm rotating strong enough to produce a tornado. A warning is when you take action and get to a safe area.

An easy set of tornado rules you can remember and apply to just about any situation is called DUCK. I teach this to school kids all across the state. DUCK is an acronym.

D - Downstairs
U - Underneath Something
C - Center of Home or Building
K - Keep Away from Windows

To explain further, you want to be on the lowest level of your home, school, work place, etc. You want to be under something, like a work bench, desk or table. This will help protect your body in the event debris is flying or the roof of the building you are in collapses. You want to put as many walls between you and the outside. This is because it will put you in a more sturdy part of the building. Finally, you want to stay away from windows as strong winds, hail and flying debris can break windows. DO NOT waste time trying to open your windows. This used to be what people were told to do because it was thought opening your windows would help equalize the pressure. Again, doing this is just a waste of time and offers no protection whatsoever.

Some other things you can do is to wear a bike or football helmet. This will protect your head. You can even put on a heavy winter coat to give your body extra cushioning. Boots will help protect your feet. Remember, it is all about trying to protect your body from flying debris as that is the biggest threat to you during a tornado.

A mobile home can be a death trap during a tornado. If you live in one, you MUST have a place to go to during severe weather. It needs to be a place to can get to quickly. If you live in anything but the bottom floor of an apartment, you will want to make friends with your downstairs neighbors as that will be the place to be during strong winds and tornadoes.

Of course, sometime you may be out on the road when severe weather strikes. If this is the case, the first thing you want to do is try to seek shelter in a sturdy building. People have been known to survive tornadoes in some strange places like bank vaults and even meat coolers. If you can't find a sturdy building, look for a ditch that is safely away from the road. You can crouch down in the ditch and use your hands to protect the back of your head. This will give you a little shelter. Having said that, you must be careful and alert while doing this, as some of these storms can drop a lot of water in a short period of time. I don't want to see you getting hurt or killed due to flash flooding, so be careful.

Avoid seeking shelter under overpasses. You can get what is called the "wind tunnel effect" should a tornado pass close to the overpass. This is actually when the wind will increase as the air is being forced into a smaller area. Think about how downtown areas can get windy.

One other option, which I only recommend as a last resort, is trying to drive away from the tornado. In order to do this, you will need to stop your car (not in the middle of the road) and determine which direction the tornado is moving. You will then want to drive at a 90° angle away from the tornado. This can be hard to do as many people can easily get confused with their directions, or there may not be a road, and there may just not be enough time to do this. Plus, there are so many trees in Mississippi, you may not even be able to tell a tornado is coming at you. You DO NOT want to try to out run a tornado.

DO NOT park your car and remain in it. Doing so many very well cause your injuries to be even more severe than if you had gotten into a ditch. This is because a car can be overturned or even picked up in the stronger tornadoes. If you are inside the car, you will get tossed around almost like being in a violent car wreck.

Some of the ideas I've given above are worse case situations and hopefully you never find yourself in them. If you do, then you really have to try to make the best of a very bad situation. This is why it is important to keep updated on the weather and alter your plans when severe storms are expected. If you do that, then you'll be fine.

To help communities plan for the severe weather season, a tornado drill will be conducted tomorrow at 9:15am. Many weather radios will alert for this, but if yours goes off, remember it is only a drill. Again, now is the time to develop a safety plan. I hope all of you will do that.

Tomorrow I will talk about damaging straight-line winds and hail.

¹ - Since the change in 2007 to the new EF scale, damage surveys are conducted differently than years prior to 2007. So even though 2008 set a record for the most tornadoes in a year, it is possible years prior to 2007 would have been higher than the total for 2008, if the damage surveys had been conducted in the same manner.

² - The Jackson NWS has put together an outstanding web page on Mississippi tornadoes. Click here to see it.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Severe Weather Awareness Week: Day 1 - Thunderstorms

2011-02-21T10:53:00.025-06:00

Today marks the beginning of Severe Weather Awareness Week in Mississippi. This is the week that we need to spend time preparing for the upcoming Spring severe weather season. Now is the perfect time to develop a severe weather plan, buy a NOAA weather radio and other supplies you may need should your area have severe weather, and talk to your children and other family about the dangers we face from thunderstorms.

Typically we have two severe weather seasons in Mississippi. The first normally begins by mid-March and runs into early May. The second severe peak is normally in late October and continues into early December. That being said, we can have severe weather and thunderstorms any day of the year and any time of the day.

Mississippi can have all types of severe weather, from large hail, strong straight-line winds, tornadoes and flash flooding. This week I will be posting on all of these topics. Today's topic is an overview of thunderstorms.

A simple definition of a thunderstorm is a rain cloud that produces lightning. All thunderstorms can be dangerous since by definition they produce lightning. However, lightning actually is not part of the criteria used to gauge if a thunderstorm is severe. The criteria used to gauge if a thunderstorm is severe are:

Hail that is 1" in diameter or larger
Wind gusts of 58mph or higher
A tornado either spotted or at least moderate rotation detected by Doppler Radar.

Only about 10% of all thunderstorms severe.

For larger scale severe weather events, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK will highlight that area in their Convective Outlooks. This is normally done days in advance. The area they highlight is very general. When the SPC highlights an area in the outlook, they classify that area as being one of the following:

Non-Severe Thunderstorms - Very common. Almost daily in the Spring, Summer and Fall.
Slight Risk - Common, especially during severe weather season peaks.
Moderate Risk - Once in a whille. 4-5 times a year.
High Risk - Very rare. 2-3 times a year. Click here for a list of high risk days since 1984.

We often show these outlooks on the air at WLBT. If your area highlighted in the Convective Outlook, you know it is time to “get ready” for severe weather. Here is an example of an Convective Outlook that was issued on April 24th, 2010, the day of catastrophic Yazoo City tornado.

Convective Outlook issued by the SPC on 4/24/10. Click image to enlarge.

You will hear the terms “watch” and “warning” many times over the coming months as we go through the Spring severe weather season. A lot of people often confuse these terms. Let me now explain the difference.

In most cases, if widespread severe weather is expected, the SPC will issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. If the main severe threat is expected to be in the form of tornadoes, a Tornado Watch will be issued. Watches are normally issued several hours in advance of storms forming and they cover large areas. Watches can last for many hours. If you are in a watch, it is time to “get set” to put your severe weather plan into action. A watch is not a guarantee of severe weather. Likewise, counties near a watch, but are not actually included in a watch, should remain weather aware. A watch simply highlights the area most likely to see severe weather. Here is an example of a watch:

Tornado Watch issued by the SPC on 2/1/11. Click image to enlarge.

Once storms actually form, it becomes the duty of meteorologists at local National Weather Service Offices to issue warnings. These warnings come in the form of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado Warnings. A warning will cover a small area, normally parts of a couple of counties. Warnings typically only last from 30-45 minutes, but some can last as long as an hour. Warnings used to be issued on a county basis. This changed a couple of years ago and now warnings are in the shape of polygons. The polygon warning system was designed to cut-back on the number of "false alarms" that would be generated when a storm only impacted only a part of a county. The polygons are meant to only highlight the parts of counties that are in the path of a severe thunderstorm. When we use our crawl system to alert you to severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings, we will show two maps. The first map is a view of our entire viewing area. On this map we will highlight any counties under a watch or warning. We'll then transition into close-up views of actual counties. It on this view you will be able to see the polygon. If you are in a warning, it is time to “go” put your severe weather plan in action. Here is an example of a warning:

Tornado Warning issued by the NWS in Slidell, LA. Click to enlarge image.

In the WLBT coverage area, most of our warnings come from the National Weather Service in Jackson. However, Amite, Pike, Walthall and Wilkinson counties receive their warnings from the National Weather Service in Slidell, LA. The warning criteria are the same for both offices. In fact, the warning criteria for severe thunderstorms is uniform across the entire country. This is vastly different from, for example, winter weather warnings in which each National Weather Service office has their own set of criteria.

What can you do to protect yourself of thunderstorms in general? First, remember that ANY thunderstorm is dangerous due to the fact that all thunderstorms produce lightning. No doubt there are some thunderstorms that are more beefy than others though. Develop a severe weather plan. Know what actions to take during severe weather BEFORE severe weather strikes. Though the lead time for warnings has increased dramatically over the last ten years, time is still of the essence. Don’t wait to have a plan. Develop one now! Part of that plan should be getting indoors and away from the bad weather. Sturdy buildings are best, but just about any building is better than being outside. Also, remain weather aware. Follow the weather day to day. We can often forecast severe weather outbreaks days in advance. The finer details are sometimes not known until the day before or the actual day of the severe weather event, but you at least will have plenty of time to prepare and make adjustments to your plans.

Part of your preparation is to know the county you live in and where it is on a map. You would be surprised at the number of people that have no idea where there county is in relation to other counties. If you do not know where you live, how can you understand the warning information? Click here for a map of Mississippi that shows all the counties in the state. I've also highlighted the counties we cover.

I also highly recommend buying a NOAA weather radio. These are lifesavers! There are many different kinds of weather radios on the market. The prices will vary from a very basic radio (around $20) to radios with dozens of features (mainly non-weather related). The fancy radios can be in excess of $100. If you just want weather information, you don't need to spend that much money. You can get an excellent radio for about $30-$40. We promote the Midland 100 series radios on WLBT. They can be bought for $30 plus tax as area Kroger and Walgreens stores. Many of you do not live near one of those stories, but you should still be able to find a radio at another store or even online. The three things to look for in a weather radio are: 1. SAME technology, 2. Tone alert feature, 3. Battery back-up. If you need help, just e-mail me elaw@wlbt.com or post a message on this blog. Also, if you need help programming your radio, feel free to contact me.

SAME technology allows the radio to be programmed for only your county or the counties around you. This will avoid getting warning fatigue. Warnings without SAME technology will alert you to any warning that gets issued by the local National Weather Service office. After several times of this happening, people often turn off their radios. I don’t want you do that. So, buy a radio that has SAME. The tone alert feature will ensure you get an audible alarm when the warning is issued. This will be loud enough to wake you up at night. Finally, people often lose power during thunderstorms. A radio that has a battery back-up will provide you with many hours of weather information during power outages, so you can be ready to take cover should more storms move into your area.

More topics to be covered this week: Tomorrow I will dive into tornadoes. Wednesday’s topics will be damaging winds and hail. Thursday we’ll look at lightning. Friday’s topic will be flash flooding.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Tracking Some Cooler Weather

2011-02-20T07:17:00.000-06:00

Today and tomorrow will continue to feature well above normal temperatures. Starkville, MS was in the lower 80s on Saturday. A couple of areas could reach 80° today. There are some cooler temperatures off to our north and some of this cooler air will filter in behind a weak cold front that will move into the area late Monday and early Tuesday.

Click graphic to enlarge.

This graphic is a screenshot from the BUFKIT program in overview mode. BUFKIT is a program that allows us to analyze computer model data. I've plotted surface temperature (red line), surface dew point (green line), and precipitation (green bars). The timeline goes from right to left and is labeled along the bottom of the graphic. Notice the green bars for Monday into early Tuesday. This means the model is forecasting some very light precipitation (rain) with the cool frontal passage. Rainfall amounts are less than a tenth of a inch with this model. Also note the big drop in temperatures once the front moves through. The cooler weather will not stick around long. Signs are pointing to another big warm up by late week.

- Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

It Snowed One Year Ago Today

2011-02-12T18:52:00.000-06:00

Snow Totals: Feb. 11th-12th, 2010

One year ago today Mississippi had one of the biggest snows in quite some time. Snow began to fall late on February 11th and continued into morning of the 12th. Snow totals of 4"-6" were quite common across central and south Mississippi. A few areas topped out at 7"-8"! By the night of the 12th, parts of every state in the country had snow on the ground, including Hawaii and Florida!

A look the snow the fell on February 11th-12th.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Record Lows This Morning

2011-02-11T21:24:00.000-06:00

Many record low temperatures were broken or down right shattered in Mississippi this morning. Here is the list.

Greenwood - 8° (old record 16° set in 1981)
Greenville - 10° (old record 16° set in 1981)
Vicksburg - 17° (tied the record of 17° that was previously set in 1981)
Meridian - 14° (old record 19° set in 1947)
Jackson - 18° (tied the record of 18° that was previously set in 1973)
Tupelo - 14° (tied the record of 14° that was previously set in 1973)
Hattiesburg's low was 23°. They missed their record by 1°.

Interestingly, this morning's lows in Greenville and Greenwood were colder than the January 2010 cold outbreak. This is likely due to do the snow pack in that part of the state. It does not hurt that there is an extensive snow pack to our northwest that keeps the air mass from modifying as much.

Snow Cover as of 2/11/11

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

The Snow Totals

2011-02-11T19:01:00.000-06:00

This map is from the National Weather Service in Jackson and gives a good representation of the snowfall totals from Wednesday. Some specific totals are as follows:

Yazoo Co. - 4"
Holmes Co. - 4" with 5" recorded near the West community.
Humphreys Co. - 3"-4"
Warren Co. - 1"-2" (only a couple of reports from Warren, so there may have been totals higher than 2")
Hinds Co. - Dusting with 1/2" reported from Clinton.
Madison Co. - 1/2" - 3"
Rankin Co. - Dusting - 1/2"
Scott Co. - 2"
Leake Co. - 3-4"
Issaquena Co. - 2" - only one report from that county. Suspect there were some higher totals there.
Sharkey Co. - 3"
Washington Co. 3" - Likely higher in some areas.

Overall I'm pleased the forecast I made on Monday. Here was my snowfall forecast as of Monday:

Greenville - 5"

Greenwood - 4"

Rolling Fork - 3"

Lexington - 3"

Vicksburg - 2"

Yazoo City - 2"

Kosciusko - 3"

Carthage - 1"

Canton - 1"

Jackson Metro - 1/2"

Tuesday afternoon I upped the forecast along the I-20 corridor. That's where I went wrong. I based that decision due to the fact a couple of models brought some heavier totals towards I-20. The latter runs of the NAM model brought close to 4" between Vicksburg and Jackson. I didn't bite on those 4" totals, but I did up my forecast to 1-2" for those counties right along I-20 and brought a dusting south of I-20. We perhaps would have gotten a widespread 1-2" in the I-20 areas, if the temperatures would have dropped a few more degrees in the lower part of the atmosphere.

This graphic is data from a weather balloon that was released in Jackson at 6PM on Wednesday. All sorts of data gets collected as the balloon travels up through the atmosphere. This graphic is called an Upper Air Sounding, and it is a way to visualize that data gathered. This is a 3D look at the atmosphere. The vibrant pink slanted line is the freezing line and the wavy red line is the actual temperature that was observed.

Click to enlarge graphic.

What the data shows is that temperatures from about 9800 feet down to the surface were flirting with freezing. This ultimately caused a mixed bag of precipitation right along the I-20 corridor and is why many of you in this area saw snow, then a bit later would have a rain/snow mix, or sometimes even sleet or all rain. The changing of precipitation types in what was already a quick moving storm system ate into the snow totals along the I-20 corridor. Even though my error was to ramp up the snow forecast along I-20 by an inch or two, I'm still overall happy with how the forecast panned out. Snow totals in the Delta and the northern part of our viewing area were nailed.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Record Cold Tonight?

2011-02-10T07:42:00.001-06:00

An look at the snowfall totals compared to the forecast will come later today. I've been up almost 24 hours now and just don't have the energy to dive into that. BUT - I did want to make a quick post about the frigid temperatures.

From Lake Providence, LA to Yazoo City to Kosciusko and points northwards are in a Hard Freeze Warning. Temperatures in these areas will not rise above freezing today and will have the potential to drop into the single digits tonight. Here is a look at the temperatures as of 7am. Note the subzero temperatures from Oklahoma to Kansas. That air mass will modify some as it heads this direction, but it will also be moving over a decent snow pack...so it won't modify as much as it would if the ground was bare.

Temperatures as of 7am Thursday. Click graphic to enlarge.

Record lows are in jeopardy of being broken tonight, especially for the Greenville and Greenwood sites. The records for those towns is 16°. I'm looking at a low around 13° for Greenville and 11° for Greenwood. It may end up being colder. These areas have snow on the ground which will help cool them more efficiently. Further south, Jackson's record low is 18°. I'm looking for the low to be around 20°.

Dress in layers today, tonight and tomorrow. The winds will be up today, adding more bite to the already cold temperatures. The brutal cold won't last long, warmer weather is coming this weekend! Are you ready for the 60s?! I'm not sure I remember what that feels like.

I'm getting ready to leave WLBT, grab a beverage from Starbucks, and go home to bed for a few hours. More later this afternoon on the snow totals.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Wednesday Evening Update

2011-02-09T18:06:00.001-06:00

Generally snow has been falling north of I-20 for several hours now, with rain to the south of I-20. There is a transition area of where rain, sleet, and snow mix. Many areas along the I-20 corridor have gone from snow, to a rain/sleet mix, to all rain, and back to snow again. Temperatures are close to freezing at the surface and just above the surface along I-20, this is why these areas continue to get a mixed bag. With the sun going down, temperatures should be able to drop off to or just below freezing over the next couple of hours. There have already been reports of some slick roads and bridges over in Warren and Yazoo Counties. We will likely see more slick spots develop along the I-20 corridor later this evening.

Below are the snowfall forecasts from this morning. I've updated the forecast. Made some minor adjustments for areas that border I-20 and points southward. Bold counties are changes from this morning.

Adams County - No Accumulation

Amite County - No Accumulation

Attala County - 3"-4"

Claiborne County - Dusting

Copiah County - Dusting

Covington County - No Accumulation

Franklin County - No Accumulation

Hinds County - 1/2" southern Hinds Co. up to 1" northern Hinds Co.

Holmes County - 3"-4" (Isolated 5" Possible)

Humphreys County - 3"-4" (Isolated 5" Possible)

Issaquena County - 3-4" (Isolated 5" Possible)

Jefferson County - Dusting

Jefferson Davis County - No Accumulation

Lauderdale County - 2"-3"

Lawrence County - No Accumulation

Leake County - 2"-3"

Lincoln County - No Accumulation

Madison County - 2"-3"

Newton County - 2"-3"

Pike County - No Accumulation

Rankin County - 1/2" southern Rankin Co up to 2" northern Rankin Co.

Scott County - Dusting-1"

Sharkey County - 3"-4" (Isolated 5" Possible)

Simpson County - Dusting

Smith County - Dusting

Walthall County - No Accumulation

Warren County - 1" Southern Warren Co. - 4" Northern Warren Co.

Wilkinson County - No Accumulation

Winston County - 3"

Yazoo County - 2"-4"

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Wednesday Morning Snow Update

2011-02-09T09:19:00.002-06:00

The map above is from the latest run of the GFS model. It isn't perfect, but overall I like the snowfall total forecast. It does a good job of hitting the areas that will be in the 3"-5" range and brings the minor accumulations a little south of the I-20 corridor.

Below is a list of snowfall forecasts by county. If you don't see your county listed, post a message and I'll add it to the list.

Adams County - Dusting to 1"
Amite County - No Accumulation
Attala County - 3"-4"
Claiborne County - 2"
Copiah County - 1"
Covington County - No Accumulation
Franklin County - Dusting to 1"
Hinds County - 2"
Holmes County - 3"-4" (Isolated 5" Possible)
Humphreys County - 3"-4" (Isolated 5" Possible)
Issaquena County - 3-4" (Isolated 5" Possible)
Jefferson County - 1"
Jefferson Davis County - No Accumulation
Lauderdale County - 2"-3"
Lawrence County - No Accumulation
Leake County - 2"-3"
Lincoln County - No Accumulation
Madison County - 2"-3"
Newton County - 2"-3"
Pike County - No Accumulation
Rankin County - 2"
Scott County - 2"
Sharkey County - 3"-4" (Isolated 5" Possible)
Simpson County - 1"-2"
Smith County - 1"-2"
Walthall County - No Accumulation
Warren County - 1" Southern Warren Co. - 4" Northern Warren Co.
Wilkinson County - No Accumulation
Winston County - 3"
Yazoo County - 2"-4"

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Update On Snow Potential

2011-02-08T21:43:00.003-06:00

24 hours from now we'll have snow falling across the large area north of I-20. I wanted to take a moment to update my snowfall forecast.

The graphic below is a forecasting tool developed by Dan Cobb at the NWS office in Grand Rapids, MI. The data below is based off the latest NAM model run and is for Jackson. I've highlighted the areas that show surface temperature, precipitation type, and snowfall totals. It outputs just over 2" of snow.

Let's compare this to other models and methods of forecasting snow.

Each line on the graphic above represents a computer model or method of forecasting snowfall. Again this data is for Jackson. You can see the range, from as little as a half-inch to over 3". Again, these are models - not forecasts!

Before I show you my updated forecast, in general it appears that most areas will ultimately see some snow. The exception may be those in far south Mississippi, south of Highway 84. Many areas will start off as rain by afternoon. The exception is the Mississippi Delta, near Greenville, where the atmosphere will be cold enough to support all snow. The rest of us will have to "cool down" before we see snow. Oddly enough, the process of rain falling and evaporating will actually promote the atmosphere cooling off...eventually to the point rain will mix with, then change to snow. This will happen first in areas northwest of the Natchez Trace. As the late afternoon and evening progress, the changeover will take place in areas further southeast. I don't have a big concern about freezing rain, which results in a glaze of ice. That's what happened last week. This time around it appears to be either rain, snow or a combo of the two.

Here is my updated snowfall forecast for cities and surrounding areas:
Rolling Fork - 4"-5"
Belzoni - 4"-5"

Greenville - 4"

Greenwood - 4"

Lexington - 4"

Vicksburg - 3"-4"

Yazoo City - 4"

Kosciusko - 3"

Carthage - 2"-3"

Canton - 2"-3"

Jackson Metro - 1"-2"

Meridian - 1"-2"

Port Gibson - Dusting-1"

Elsewhere - No accumulation-Dusting

A couple of things to note. In most areas, the accumulation will be confined to grassy surfaces, rooftops, cars, etc. Probably not going to see much snow accumulate on the roads except maybe few spots in the Delta or west-central Mississippi. I do except with temperatures dropping in to the 20s, there will be some slick bridges and overpasses come Thursday morning. Precip. should end shortly after Midnight.

The track and speed of the system can change and that would have an impact on snow totals. Also, if the changeover takes places sooner or later for a given location, that would also have an impact on totals. Snowfall ratios will also vary across the area, with the highest ratios in the Delta. That will help snow to add up a little more there.

I'll post another update in the morning around 9am.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Winter Storm Watch In Effect

2011-02-07T19:30:00.000-06:00

Winter Storm Watch - Click map to enlarge.

Counties highlighted in purple are in a Winter Storm Watch starting Wednesday afternoon and goes through late Wednesday night. Though the entire area will likely see some snow during the Wednesday-Thursday time frame, it is the areas in the watch that have the best chance to see snow accumulate.

18Z NAM Total Snowfall - Click map to enlarge.

The map below is the very latest data from the NAM model. Note the legend along the bottom of the graphic. You'll see the NAM confines the heaviest snowfall totals to the Greenville area. The NAM has Greenville in the 6-8" range! The model does bring some minor (dusting-1") accumulations into the Jackson Metro area. Again, this is not a forecast, but just some model data to digest. Other models have less.

I will go ahead and put out my forecast now that we're 48 hours away from the event.

Greenville - 5"

Greenwood - 4"

Rolling Fork - 3"

Lexington - 3"

Vicksburg - 2"

Yazoo City - 2"

Kosciusko - 3"

Carthage - 1"

Canton - 1"

Jackson Metro - 1/2"

If are not on that list or close to a place on that list, you will either get no accumulation or at most a dusting on the grassy areas.

Some things to keep in mind...if the bulk of the precipitation arrives during the daylight hours on Wednesday, snow totals will be less everywhere. Anytime it snows during the day, there is almost always some melting that takes place as you have to battle the energy coming from the sun. Also, temperatures will actually start out above freezing and the atmosphere will have to cool in order to get snow to form. Precipitation falling from the clouds will actually help to cool the atmosphere, eventually to the point that it snows. This will happen faster in the Mississippi Delta, which is why snowfall totals are higher in that part of the region. Rain will then change to snow from northwest to southeast as a low pressure system track along the northern Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that areas in the Delta may actually be cold enough to start out as snow. Things will come to an end early Thursday morning as the low in the Gulf moves out of the region. Then it will just be COLD!

This storm is still about a day and half away. A lot can happen between now and then. One thing is for sure, winter won't last long. Spring-like weather will return over the weekend and we will come very close to 70 on Valentine's Day.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

They Moved While I Was Gone

2011-02-05T22:30:00.000-06:00

Last May I posted about the new newsroom that was being built at WLBT. While I was on vacation, the news department moved from the old newsroom to the new newsroom. There are still some things to be done, but overall it looks great! This will only make the #1 station in Mississippi even better. Hats off to our engineering team for working tireless hours on getting folks moved.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Snow Next Week?

2011-02-05T08:06:00.001-06:00

High temperatures will shoot for 60 tomorrow. That will be the warmest for at least a week to ten days. Old Man Winter will be knocking at our door once again with two systems potentially bringing some wintry weather to the area.

System 1 - Arrives late Sunday into Monday. Initially rain, but with colder air moving in, some light sleet or light snow may mix in or even fully take over early Monday morning. The best areas to see this happen are along the Highway 82 corridor, but there could be a brief mix as far south as I-20. Precipitation will be light and should quickly move out. Temperatures will remain above freezing at the surface, so there should not be any travel problems.

System 2 - This system will arrive Wednesday into Thursday. It is more complex and will be stronger than the system earlier in the week. The biggest questions are will an organized area of low pressure form and, if it does, which way will it go. The computer models we look at are all over the place, so the forecast for the Wednesday-Thursday time frame is VERY UNCERTAIN. Hopefully the models will latch on to something concrete in the next few days. That will help to increase confidence in the forecast.

The map below is a model, not a forecast. It is from this mornings GFS model and shows snowfall accumulations for the next five days. No doubt this map will change over the next five days. Don't get your hopes up...yet.

Click image to make it larger.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Wintry Mix Tonight Into Friday Morning

2011-02-02T21:01:00.002-06:00

Old Man Winter has invaded the Deep South and it looks like some moisture will meet up with the cold air starting late tonight into Friday. The set up, as usual, is complicated and a wide variety of weather can be expected and it will very depending on the time of day.

First, here is the BUFKIT overview for McComb. The timeline runs right to left. Precipitation is plotted, with the red bars being freezing rain, orange bars sleet, green bars are rain. The light blue horizontal line marks the freezing line (32° F) and the wavy red line that goes across the image is the forecast surface temperature by the model. You can see from early tomorrow morning through Friday morning, this model is forecasting precip. starting as sleet, before changing to what may be a long period of freezing rain. Precipitation is initially light, but will increase in intensity by late Thursday.

It is hard to see, but the temperature line is actually right at the freezing mark for most of Thursday into Friday. This is critical and can make the difference between just a cold rain or freezing rain. Freezing rain is when raindrops freeze on contact with the surface, making ice. Now though this model forecasts a long duration of freezing rain, it won't take much warming to change it to a cold rain. Areas in south Mississippi could actually go back and forth, and maybe even a sleet pellet or two mixed in, especially early on in the storm. By mid-morning Friday, the model forecasts temperatures to warm safely above freezing, ensuring just a cold rain. IF this model did verify, McComb would be looking at around 3/4" of ice. That would cause some big problems as far as power lines, bridges, and overpasses. I think there is enough of a chance that the surface temperature will warm just above freezing at times to allow for just rain and keep ice accumulations down somewhat.

Further north, temperatures will be colder and there is a risk for precipitation to remain all freezing rain, or even mix with sleet and snow. This next image is from the BUFKIT program, but this time we are looking at a vertical snapshot of the atmosphere for Jackson at 3AM Friday.

You notice there is a lot of art work on this image. My good friend Ryan Vaughan at KAIT-TV did a similar explanation not long ago on his blog. I'm copying the idea. I'll pay him later. Anyhow, the slanted light blue line is the freezing line. Temperatures are below freezing to the left of the line; above freezing to the right. The red line that goes up is the forecast temperature. Again this is looking vertically at the atmosphere. The height (in feet) is labeled on the left.

It is cold enough up around 20,000 feet for snowflakes to form. About 10,000 feet, the temperatures warms above freezing, melting the snowflakes into raindrops. The temperature drops below freezing the lower few thousand feet of the atmosphere. The depth of the below freezing temperatures near the surface is shallow and does not allow enough time for the raindrops to freeze into sleet. Instead, the raindrops cool very quickly so that they are able to freeze on contract at the surface. The temperatures north of Highway 84 have the best chances to stay below freezing during the day Thursday, so it is in these areas where there may be some significant ice accumulation, possibly as much as a 3/4". Any sleet that mixes in will be a good thing as it will help cut down on any problems with ice. There may even be some snow, especially as the precipitation starts.

I will say the computer models have increase the amount of precipitation that falls over the area. If that trend continues, the problems will be worse. Either way, temperatures will warm above freezing for most of the area on Friday morning. The storm system will also be pulling away, so things will begin to melt. I want to place emphasis on the fact that snow is not a big concern with this system.

I'm still stuck in Illinois due to the blizzard earlier this week. My wife and I will be heading back as soon as we get scooped out and the roads are safe to travel on. If I am not traveling tomorrow afternoon, I will update the blog, Twitter and Facebook. I've got some awesome pictures to share with you when I get back!

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Live Streaming of Blizzard 2011

2011-02-01T17:20:00.001-06:00

I'm streaming my webcam of Blizzard 2011. Feed may be in and out at times due to the weather conditions. I'm 2 hours north of St. Louis, MO in a small town named Pittsfield, IL.

Live Broadcasting by Ustream

Historic Storm This Week

2011-01-31T17:56:00.002-06:00

Note: Click on the images in this post to make them larger.

I write this post while on vacation, on a farm 4 miles north-northwest of Pittsfield, IL. My wife and I are here visiting her family. We are prepping for a historic blizzard here, while those of you down south, in the warm part of the system, are getting ready for a round of severe weather.

The map above is from the Storm Prediction Center. They've put just about all of Mississippi and Louisiana, along with east Texas and southeast Arkansas, in a slight risk of severe storms. The wind with the system is very impressive. What is uncertain is how unstable the atmosphere will end up being. This is similar to the severe weather set up on New Year's Eve. Lots of wind energy, low instability. There is some very decent moisture in the northern Gulf of Mexico. If that can sneak in and there is enough sun, the instability will be higher. Right now I'm expecting the storms to move in and out quickly, so this should not be a lingering severe weather event. A line of storms should cross the Mississippi River by lunchtime. The line should be at the I-55 corridor by 2PM-3PM and then out of the area by 6PM. As I mentioned, the winds with this system are quite strong. Wind speeds 10,000-20,000 feet off the ground will be around 90-120mph! That would be bad of those winds reached the surface. I could easily see some 80-85mph winds taking place. There is also a lower risk for a few tornadoes. With the wind dynamics being so strong, any tornadoes that form could be strong....on the order of EF-2-EF-3. I can't rule out something even stronger. Though the SPC has our area in the slight risk, I would not be at all surprised to see an upgrade to a moderate risk tomorrow morning, especially if the better moisture is able to move in.

Though I am out of town, I will be sending out Tweets on my Twitter account. Just follow @EricLawWLBT by clicking here. I'll also be updating the First Alert Weather Facebook page. You can get to that by clicking here. Chief Meteorologist Barbie Bassett and Meteorologist Paul Williams will be covering the severe weather on the air in the studio. If you are away from your TV, we will stream the weather coverage online at www.wlbt.com, if Barbie and/or Paul go wall-to-wall in their coverage.

The other side of this massive weather system will be a historic blizzard. This is definitely going to be the biggest storm of the winter. This is not to say that the winter storm a couple of weeks ago on the east coast wasn't bad, but with this storm will produce a large swath of 1-2 feet snow totals with snow drifts as high as 4 feet. The map below shows the Blizzard Warnings stretching from Oklahoma City to Chicago. Winter Storm Warnings, the pink shaded areas, stretch from central Texas all the way to Vermont.

The folks around town here seem to be in disbelief that 2 feet of snow may fall. My in-laws cannot recall it ever snowing that much in at least the last 30 years or longer. Lots of very strong "lift" with the system should give way to reports of thundersnow. This is when you essentially get a thunderstorm but instead of rain, it is snow. This is rare. Convective snow falls extremely heavy. If this happens, snowfall rates will add up very fast, maybe as much as 2" per hour, if not more.

The next map is a close-up to show you where I am and the forecast snowfall from the GFS model. The color table does not go past 20", so the amounts literally are off the chart.

Finally, this last map shows the total forecast snowfall over the next 5 days. Needless-to-say some states will be fully shut down for days and airline travel in this country is going to be going crazy through the weekend. This is a huge storm that will impact millions of people.

Behind the storm system, a massive Arctic airmass will be moving in across most of the country, including Mississippi. There may be light snow across Mississippi Friday into Saturday. More on that after tomorrow.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

It Will Snow In The Clouds

2011-01-24T10:37:00.000-06:00

The snow rumors have been fast and furious the past few days. Let's try to knock them down.

Another surface low pressure system will be forming in the Gulf of Mexico. This will send some much needed rain our way late tonight and especially tonight and Tuesday morning. Hope your wiper blades are in working order on your car.

The image below is from the BUFKIT program. One of the features of this program is we can take model data and actually visualize what the atmosphere in the vertical (from the ground up into the clouds) looks like for a certain area. The data below is from this morning's run of the GFS model and it covers the Jackson area for 12pm tomorrow.

Now what are we looking at here? The zig-zag red line is the forecast temperature through the atmosphere. The solid slanted yellow line is the freezing line. Everything to the left of this line is below freezing (32° F). Height, in feet, is on the left side of the image. I've noted where the model puts the best snow growth area. This is roughly about 14,000-17,000 feet above the ground. This is up in the clouds, where it will be cold enough for snow to actually form. I've also noted that from about 8,500 feet down to the ground, temperatures warm above freezing. It is safe to say, based on this profile, those snowflakes that form in the clouds will have ample time to melt before they make it down to the ground where you and I are. The net result? RAIN.

Let's fast forward to later in the day. As the low in the Gulf moves east, the upper part of the storm system will be passing over us. This is when the coldest temperatures aloft will move right over Mississippi. You can see that on the graphic below. The purple colors indicate the coldest of air.

These "upper lows" can sometimes pull surprises on us. What I mean is that they can generate areas of heavier precipitation. This process can cool the atmosphere and quickly change rain over to snow..that accumulates! Below is another image from BUFKIT. The same features are plotted as in the first BUFKIT image, only the time is for 9PM tomorrow...right as the upper low moves over us.

By 9PM, this model shows that the layer of above freezing temperatures has shrunk. Is it enough that some wet snowflakes could mix in with any leftover rain? Maybe....especially if the atmosphere cools off even more. But even IF this happens, it should not be big deal. The ground temperatures are above freezing, so it would have to come down heavily and for a long period of time to get any type of accumulation. Even IF that happened, it would mainly be on the grass.

One exception may be along or north of Highway 82. The last image is also from BUFKIT, but in overview mode. This mode helps us look out over time to see what the model is forecasting...all in one image. For this purpose, I have only plotted the precipitation forecast. The timeline goes from right to left. The data is for Greenwood, MS. The solid green vertical bars indicate rain. The blue vertical bars indicate snow.

IF this model verified, the Greenwood area could see about a half-inch of snow after a changeover from rain to snow late Tuesday. This is not a forecast, but just showing you what some of the model data shows.

As I mentioned earlier, sometimes this type of set-up can pull surprises. But, even looking at the coldest of data, it would appear that it would still be too warm for any significant snow accumulation.

I'm working for Barbie tonight and will have the latest information starting at 4PM on WLBT. See you then!

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

This E-mail Made Me Smile

2011-01-22T21:22:00.000-06:00

I gave a weather talk to 350 first graders at Lower Pearl Elementary School yesterday. Today I got this e-mail.

"When my daughter in law picked up my grandson at Pearl Elementary she asked him what did they do at school. He told her that Paw Paw's friend came to school and told them about tornadoes.

When he stays with us the first thing he does in the morning is asks to watch Disney. I always tell him we have to check in with Eric Law and see what the weather is going to be. He has accepted this as part of the morning routine. He asked me how I knew you and I told him I see you every weekend. He assumed that we were life long friends.

My daughter in law had no idea what he was talking about."

I hope this e-mail made you smile like it did me.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

An Update On The Drought

2011-01-21T11:35:00.000-06:00

I've heard several comments lately that people are tired of the rain. It does seem like January has been wet. Through today, there have been seven days this month in which precipitation was recorded at Jackson-Evers International Airport. This has resulted in almost 1.50" for the month, still over 2" below normal. Surrounding cities have similar numbers. Much of the state remains in a drought. Here is the latest update on the drought from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

We've made some big improvements in the drought over the past three months. Here is what the map looked like on October 19, 2010.

Some of you may be tired of the rain. I would like to see some more so we are not so far behind going into our drier months in the summer.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Pesky Low Clouds

2011-01-19T10:32:00.001-06:00

The visible satellite image of Mississippi from 10am is about as grey as what it looks like outside.

The image below is from BUFKIT. It is showing the 6z (12am) run of the NAM. I've plotted relative humidity (R.H.). Blue colors are R.H. values less than 30%. Red colors are R.H. values 70%-90%, with green colors being R.H. values over 90%. Height, in feet, is plotted on the right. The timeline goes from right to left, with the pink vertical line marking the current time (just after 10am).

The reds and greens are the most likely areas to see clouds. In the case this morning, we have a lot of low clouds (under 4,000 ft) that have been difficult to erode. The NAM model shows some lowering R.H. values after lunchtime, and if that happens it may allow for some sunshine later today. If we get a little sunshine, it will help get rid of even more clouds and we'll have even more sunshine. We just need to get those first few breaks in the clouds to start warming things up and that will help break up some of these pesky low clouds. Hopefully it will happen in the next few hours.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Video of Fireball & Another Event

2011-01-13T14:34:00.001-06:00

A lot of you have been asking me for updates on Tuesday night's fireball that was seen across the state. Below is security camera video out of Louisiana from Tuesday evening that appears to show the greenish-blue light streaking across the sky. It appears in the top-right part of the video towards the end. It happens fast, so it make take you playing it a couple of times to see it.

I have also learned there was another event across Minnesota last night in the early evening. Reports are anywhere from 1-3 fireballs were seen. Interesting stuff!

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

UPDATE: Last Nights' Cosmic Event

2011-01-12T17:23:00.002-06:00

This afternoon I received an e-mail from David Watts, Vice President of the Jackson Astronomical Association.
With his permission, here are his thoughts on what the object seen in the sky last night may have been.¹
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A. Meteor -- It could possibly have been a type of meteor called a "bolide." Usually this is a bit larger than normal meteor that explodes not long after it enters the earth's atmosphere. This causes a very bright flash and then it trails off to darkness.

Meteors can be classed as: (1) "Stone meteors" -- composed largely silicate material. Depending upon the mineral makeup, it can have different colors in the tail. (2) "Iron meteor" -- composed largely nickel/iron content. They can have various colors in the tail of the meteor. (3) "Stony-Iron meteor" -- made of a combination of the above two.

B. Space Junk -- occasionally pieces of satellites and other space debris drop from orbit and burn up upon entering the atmosphere. Depending upon their size, they can produce brilliant light flashes that leave long lighted trails across the sky. Based on those I've talked to who saw the event, it was too brief to be this type.

Don't forget, most of the meteors we typically see in a meteor event are about the size of a pea and weight no more than about 1 gram. Sounds like last evening's event was possibly a bit larger than normal.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If anything else comes of this, I'll post it.

¹ Note: David did not witness it.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Aliens Have Landed

2011-01-12T09:36:00.002-06:00

I had to pop into the station for a few minutes last night to fix a couple of things. As I went to reboot a computer, I noticed our computer monitor for our Skycams. Right as I looked at it, I saw a blue "flash" on the four cams that were pulled up. I didn't think too much about it, other than I knew it was not lightning because there were no storms - or even clouds - around. Honestly my first thought was that I was seeing things. Then I thought perhaps it was an issue with our camera network. I went about my business.

I get home a half hour later, log onto my Facebook page, and I see posts from people asking about a bright blue flash of light seen in the sky. Oh boy! Let the excitement begin!

My Twitter account was also flooded with comments, many with the hash tag "#flashoflight." One Tweet declared, "Aliens have landed". I don't think so.

Some people described the object as being blue, others green. Some said it looked like a fireball and had a reddish/orange tail. Some said it was one streak, others two. Some heard what may have been a sonic boom after it streaked across the sky. Others didn't hear a thing. Isn't it funny how we all saw the same thing, yet everybody's description of what happened varies. Kind of like witnesses to a car wreck. It happens so fast your brain can't even process what it was that you saw. Looking back, for me it was just a blue flash, almost like a reflection, that I saw on our Skycams. I'm not even sure what time it was, but most people say it was between 8:45pm-8:50pm.

Online reports showed it has been seen from Florida all the way to Oklahoma.

I checked in with the area National Weather Service offices, along with other meteorologists in Mississippi and outside of the state. I also did some research in Google. Several ideas got tossed around fairly quickly.

One idea is that it was a meteor from the Quadrantids meteor shower, which peaked last week. Another idea is that there were five near Earth asteroids passing close by the past couple of days. It is possible a tiny piece of one of those broke off and came into the Earth's atmosphere. Several people asked me if it was the International Space Station. The answer is no.

There was a report that got circulated around late last night that someone had found a crater in Covington Co. This report is NOT true. Another report is that a piece of it was found near Poteau Mountain, OK, about 40 miles south-southwest of Fort Smith, AR. This can't be verified and nothing has been found.

Truthfully we don't know where it originated from. We don't know how big it actually was. We don't know if anything made it to the ground. We may never know for sure the answers to these questions. Meteors often streak across the night sky. Many go unnoticed. Last night's event was something out of the ordinary and I think more than just your common meteor.

I have seen several pictures going around online claiming to be the object in question. I can't verify any of those are real. I'm sure I will get several pictures today claiming to be a picture of of it. I'll be visiting snopes.com a lot. That's a great site to check out suspicious pictures, emails, and rumors.

If you saw the object in the sky last night, you can report it to the American Meteor Society by clicking here. I encourage you to do that as it will help them plot the path the object took and may help determine what it was.

I will most certainly update this post if I hear anything the next couple of days.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Last Thoughts Before The Storm...

2011-01-08T23:20:00.000-06:00

Here are updated precip. type and storm total maps. I didn't change too much from my thinking this morning. I'm as satisfied as I can be given the complexity of the forecast. Will go into NowCasting mode tomorrow morning. Going to try to sleep tonight, since once I'm up at 4:30am, I'll probably not sleep again until sometime Monday!

Click the graphics to enlarge...

FZR = Freezing Rain = Ice

More ice means less snow/sleet accumulation.

Check me out on Twitter and Facebook, I'll be around posting update on there through the storm!

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Freezing Rain vs. Sleet

2011-01-08T18:48:00.001-06:00

A lot of people are confused about freezing rain and sleet. In fact, a lot of people think they are same thing. They are not.

First, the simple stuff. If the temperature is above freezing (32°F) from the surface through the atmosphere, there are no issues with any type of frozen precipitation. In this case, the precipitation will fall as rain. All liquid. If the temperature is below freezing (32° F) from the surface throughout the atmosphere, the precipitation will be all snow. It is when the temperatures vary being above and below freezing in the lower parts of the atmosphere that forecasting precipitation type becomes a problem. That's the case we're facing for tomorrow, and especially tomorrow night. Now, let's dive into what sleet and freezing rain are.

Sleet: Snowflakes begin to fall though the atmosphere. They reach a shallow layer where temperatures are above freezing. The snowflakes begin to melt. Before they completely melt, they then enter the lower couple thousand feet of the atmosphere where temperatures are below freezing again. The melting snowflakes begin to re-freeze. The result is a sleet pellet, also known as an ice pellet.¹

Freezing Rain: Snowflakes begin to fall through the atmosphere. They reach a deeper layer where temperatures are above freezing. The snowflakes completely melt due to the depth of the warmer air. Just at and above the surface, temperatures are at or below freezing again. As the melted snowflake, now a raindrop, goes through the colder air, it becomes supercooled. This means that the raindrop is cooled quickly below its freezing temperature (32°), but does not actually freeze. Instead, it remains a liquid and freezes on contact with the ground. This is called freezing rain. The result is ice.

The graphic below shows how we get the various precipitation types. The green line shows how the temperature changes from the surface up to 15,000 feet. The vertical black line is the freezing line (32°). Left of vertical black line, temperatures are below freezing. Right of the black line, temperatures are above freezing.

Click image to enlarge.

¹ - Sleet is not the same thing as hail. While both are a form of ice, the process by which hail forms is completely different than sleet.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Saturday Morning Winter Weather Update

2011-01-08T09:04:00.001-06:00

I expect precipitation to get going by 7-8am Sunday in south Mississippi, then overspread the entire area by late morning and early afternoon. Most areas, even south Mississippi, will likely start off with snow, sleet, or a combination of both. As warmer air oozes in, a transition over to a cold rain in south Mississippi, mainly south of Highway 84, is expected. It is very hard to say just how far north the warmer air makes it. To be honest, it is something that we'll just have to watch as the system plays out tomorrow. The worse case situation is that it makes it far enough north that the snow and sleet change over to freezing rain. This then becomes ice as the raindrops freeze on contact with surfaces like trees, power lines, bridges, and roads. If this happens, we'll have to deal with some big problems like very slick roads and significant power outages, along with downed trees. The areas I'm watching for this are from just north of Highway 84 to about 40 miles north of I-20. My hope is that either the air does not as warm and it keeps the precipitation as sleet, or that it warms enough to change it all over to a cold rain. Believe me...rain at 33° is a lot different than rain falling at 31°! The former is a nuisance, the latter has potentially dangerous outcomes. Regardless, further north there will be a quick transition over to mostly snow with some sleet and even further north all snow is a good bet.

Here is a map I made this morning showing what I expect to happen based on all the data I've looked at this morning and following the model trends over the past week. Keep in mind this may change and I do plan to update it this evening.

Forecast precipitation types. Click the graphic to make it larger.

As for accumulations amounts, talk about a headache! The total accumulations are highly dependent upon what type of precipitation falls and for how long. In other words, if it snows and sleet and/or freezing rain mix in, the snowfall accumulation will be reduced significantly. I've seen situations where 10" of snow was forecast, but it warmed enough for sleet to mix in, knocking accumulations down to an inch or two. We are very prone to that happening here due to our proximity to the warmer air over the Gulf of Mexico. It often gets pushed in ahead of surface lows that develop in the northern Gulf. So...despite the rumors I've heard of 7-10" of snow being possible in the Jackson Metro....I do NOT see that happening. Listen to me again - that is VERY, VERY UNLIKELY. There may be some high snow accumulations across north Mississippi.

Here is a map I made showing possible accumulation totals. Again, some of the ranges are rather large. This is because of the uncertainty regarding how far north the warmer air moves in.

Forecast storm totals. Click the graphic to make it larger.

Let's go through the map above...starting in the south.

Green Area: I'm confident far south Mississippi will see mainly a cold rain with some freezing rain and/or sleet mixing in. The more freezing rain or sleet that mixes in, the more ice accumulation there will be. Worse case is a half-inch of ice. That WILL cause problems in terms of power outages and slick roads.

Purple Area: Further north, to the north of Highway 84 to about 40 miles north of I-20, there will be snow and sleet. The BIG question continues to be when and if it changes over to freezing rain. The more freezing rain, the lower the snow/sleet accumulation, BUT the bigger concern there will be for power outages and dangerous road conditions. Worse case situation would be an 1" of ice with a half-inch to 1" of snow/sleet. If It stayed all snow/sleet, then accumulations would be 2"-4". My thinking is that freezing rain or a cold rain will be the dominant precipitation type. If it ends up being mostly freezing rain and the 1" ice accumulation is realized, we would be dealing with a major ice storm with power outages lasting for days and extremely dangerous travel conditions.

Pink Area: Let's go further north, across the north-central part of our viewing area. This would be areas from Rolling Fork to Yazoo City to Carthage. This area has a greater chance of seeing mostly snow and sleet. The warmer air could easily sneak in though and change that area over to freezing rain. Worse case would be more freezing rain than snow/sleet because there could be up to a half-inch to three-fourths inch of ice accumulation. Again, that would cause big issues.

Blue Area: Further north, for areas like Greenville, Lexington, Kosciusko, and Greenwood have a better chance at having mostly snow. For an all snow event, up to 9" will be possible. There will be a chance, if warmer air sneaks in, for sleet to mix in with the snow. If that happens, accumulations will be reduced significantly...possibly down to the 3-4" range.

Some things to keep in mind: The wind will pick up late tomorrow and tomorrow night. That could cause further issues as far as bringing down trees, power lines, etc. Also, sometimes heavy precipitation along the coast will "cut off" the better moisture from making it this far north. If this happens, precipitation would be lighter and accumulations would be less for everyone.

Everybody needs to be prepared for the worse case situations, but don't be shocked if many areas south of I-20 end up with a cold rain with temperatures in the mid or upper 30s. While annoying, it will be far better a freezing rain/ice situation.

Precipitation will end late Sunday night, but some snow or sleet may wrap around the storm system as it pulls away during the day Monday morning into the afternoon. Temperatures should rise safely above freezing for all areas Monday afternoon, except areas that pick up significant snow accumulation may stay close to freezing on Monday.

I would hit the store and stock up to be at home for a couple of days. Roads should thaw by Monday afternoon or Tuesday, but some re-freezing will be possible as we will see temperatures below freezing at night. If you have a generator, it would be a good idea to make sure it is working and you have fuel to run it. If the ice storm solution pans out, it could potentially take days or a week to restore power. Maybe longer. Let's hope not.

I'll update the blog again this evening. There is no 6PM news today on WLBT due to football, but we'll have a 10PM news tonight. We are also ready for continous weather coverage on WLBT Sunday and Monday.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Pick One: Rain, Ice, Sleet, Or Snow

2011-01-07T13:47:00.003-06:00

Note: Internet issues with Blogger delayed this post. Sorry about that!

The fun of forecast winter weather in the Deep South. It doesn't get any better than this! Since Wednesday, I can tell you that the computer models have come into better agreement that some sort of winter weather event is likely across parts of our area. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to what type of winter weather, where it will occur, and how much. In a moment I will dive into some "worse case" situations. Before I do that, however, I want to give an overview of what we're dealing with.

The map below shows the temperature difference over the past 24 hours. Notice the red colors over Mississippi, showing that we are warmer now than where we were this time yesterday. The warmer weather will not last long. There is another blast of cooler air coming down from our northwest. That's shown by the blue colors. This cooler air will arrive tonight and tomorrow, setting the stage for possible winter weather later in the weekend.

The water vapor map about shows an upper level low coming into southern California this morning. This upper level low will track east across the southern part of the country and help a low pressure area to form at the surface by the time it gets over our way. The track of these systems is a huge factor in what type of precipitation we get here. Even a forecast track that off by 20 or 30 miles can drastically change the weather in an area. This is what makes the forecast so frustrating. Nobody can give you a truly accurate picture of what will happen. The best forecast, I think, comes from explaining to you the variety of "What Ifs" so that you can be prepared as you can be.

The next two maps are forecast surface maps. The top one is from the 6z NAM model and is for 6pm Sunday. Notice the position of the L (surface low) in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

The next map is from the 6z GFS model. It is for the same time period (6pm Sunday). Again, notice the position of the L (surface low) in the Gulf of Mexico.

See the difference? The NAM is a little further north and west than the GFS for the same time period. It isn't off by a lot, but enough to make the forecast a challenge. Here is why.

You have to keep in mind that weather happens all around us and ABOVE us. As a meteorologist I have to think in 3D. When I want to understand how the 3D atmosphere changes with with time, I have to think in a 4D manner to visualize those changes. The map below is a forecast "profile" or 3D look at the atmosphere for the same time period (6pm Sunday) from the NAM model.

Remember, in this profile you are looking at the entire atmosphere for a specific location. In this case, Jackson. I've highlighted the freezing line (32°) in pink. The solid red line is the temperature profile through the atmosphere. The green line is the dewpoint or moisture profile through the atmosphere. On the far left part of the profile, is the altitude, given in feet. When that red line is to the left of the freezing line, that shows temperatures below freezing for that part of the atmosphere. Once you get above roughly 10,500 feet, the temperature is below freezing the rest of the way up in the atmosphere. The best areas to see snow grow, is about 17,000-20,000 feet above the surface. When you get down below 10,000 feet, the red temperature line crosses over to the right of the freezing line. This shows how the temperature is warming lower down in the atmosphere. It almost "flirts" with the freezing line until about 3,000 feet, when the red line clearly cross back to the left of the freezing line. It is tough to see, but at the very bottom of the profile, the red line crosses back over the freezing line again. This would be at the surface.

So what does all this mean? Well, IF this model were to verify, way up in the atmosphere the moisture would start out as snow. As those snowflakes fall into the warmer layers, below 10,000 feet, those snowflakes will begin to melt. Before they completely melt, the enter below freezing temperatures again at around 2,500-3,000 feet. What's tricky is what is the temperature at the surface? This model has the temperature just above freezing at the surface. I think there is likely enough wiggle room that the temperature may actually drop to 30°-31° since there is still some "drier" air closer to the surface. As the "sleet" falls into that drier air, it should cool the temperature a little more at the surface and get us just below freezing.

Let's look at a couple more profiles. This time the 12PM Sunday profile from the 6z GFS model...

But wait...one more forecast profile to show you...this is for 9PM Sunday and from the 6z GFS model...

Like on the 12PM profile, temperatures are below freezing above about 7,000 feet. But, by 9pm, the GFS forecasts a larger "nose" of warm air to move in above the earth's surface. This is the yellow shaded area. This would melt the snowflakes. The temperature does drop back below freezing about 2,000 feet above the surface. It isn't cold enough and not enough time to re-freeze the raindrops, so instead we end up with freezing rain aka ICE at the surface. This would NOT be good, especially when you consider we may have snow on the ground from earlier in the day. You get ice on top of that snow and well all sorts of problems begin to arise.

You can see why the forecast is so complicated. One has to look at several computer models, then look at the forecast "sounding" profiles over the duration of the storm to understand what the models forecast. When the models don't agree, it further complicates things. This is exactly how forecasts get blown. The models do agree that this will be a heavy precipitation event.

As I talked about earlier, nobody can give you an exact track of the low. The best generalization I can give you is that the further north you live, the better chances you have of seeing winter precipitation. The far northern areas are the areas most likely to stay all snow. This would be along and north of Highway 82. The further south you live, the better chances you have of seeing a cold rain. This would be along and south of Highway 84. The area between Highways 82 and 84 are the most likely areas to see a mix of frozen and liquid precipitation throughout the storm. Keep in mind if the low tracks further north or south, it would have a HUGE impact on what type of precipitation you see. This is what makes forecasting amounts very difficult. Jackson could end up with an 1.50" of cold rain, 1"+ of ice, 1-2" of sleet, or 8-12" of snow, if not more. Of the 4 choices, the 1" of ice would cause the biggest problems with widespread limbs and power lines down. Snow would be the 2nd worse case, followed by sleet. Of course a cold rain would be annoying, but not that big of a deal. If we start off as snow and sleet or freezing rain mixes in, the snow accumulation will be GREATLY REDUCED.

I would *not* get my hopes up about seeing more than a couple of inches of snow in the Jackson area just yet...this is going to be a system that goes right up until the wire on Sunday morning. I could easily see enough warm air getting pulled in out of the Gulf to give central Mississippi a cold rain or sleet. Looking at the latest data coming in this afternoon, the models have trended a little colder. We'll need to see if this trend continues with future model runs later today and tonight. I expect to see a Winter Storm Watch issued for the area laster this afternoon.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Weekend Snow Chances & The Siberian Express - UPDATED!

2011-01-05T10:32:00.005-06:00

Let's start with the weekend and the possibility of some winter weather. A few days ago the GFS computer model had the weekend system producing all snow as low pressure tracked in the Gulf of Mexico, sending moisture our way, just as cold air came down from the north. If you watched my weathercasts over the weekend, you may have noticed I said I was watching Sunday very closely. The GFS flipped back to rain pretty quick as it tracked the low further north, making us warmer. A couple of runs have had us starting as rain, then going to snow as colder air arrives..a la the 0z run of the GFS.

The graphic below is using the BUFKIT program in overview mode. The timeline goes from right to left and is for the 0z (6pm) run of the GFS computer model. I have plotted several things. The ones you need to be concerned about are the precipitation bars (the vertical green/orange/blue bars), the surface temperature (the solid up and down red line), OMEGA ("lift"), and the best snow growth areas (the pink & yellow lines....yellow being the best areas to get snow to form). The blue precipitation bars would be the snow forecast by the model. The orange bar is sleet. Green, as you have probably figured, is rain.

IF this model verified, we would see about 1" of snow in the Jackson area, minus any melting due to the warmer ground temperatures. Any accumulation would likely be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces. This model has the Jackson metro changing to snow during the day on Sunday.

But wait...there's more!

The very next model run of the GFS (6z) does not have the cold air arriving until almost all of the moisture is gone. This is an all rain solution, except it does forecast a very brief period of a little freezing rain at the end of the system. This is represented by the red precipitation bar on the far bottom-left part of the graphic.

You can see why forecasting winter precipitation this far away is a problem. The models don't handle it well at all and they do a lot of flip-flopping. ~~The very latest run of the GFS (12z) is just coming in. I'll be reviewing that data later this afternoon and may post an update to this post.~~

3PM Update: I've looked over the 12z GFS, it has flipped again and tracks the low further south...almost to the point that moisture barely reaches the I-20 corridor. This is a tough system to forecast. Get ready to be surprised.

Right now I can't tell you with any certainty how this system will play out. It will ultimately come down to the track of the low pressure system. If you want snow, you want it to track further south...but not so far south that the moisture misses us completely! If you want rain, you need to root for the low to take a northern track. My hunch is mostly, if not all, rain, with a few snow flakes or sleet pellets as the moisture exits. Likely no accumulation and certainly no need to raid the grocery store.

Whether we see any snow this weekend or not, those that are looking for some winter weather shouldn't despair. There many be more chances over the next couple of weeks.

Think it has been cold this Winter? Hang on, it will get colder next week as the coldest air of the season moves in. For a couple of weeks I've been watching GFS model as it has been hinting at a global pattern change that would send frigid air from Siberia down into the United States. Other models have caught on, and it looks like the country will be thrown into an ice box next week. The map below is from the 0z run of the ECMWF computer model.

ECMWF - Valid 6pm Tuesday, Jan. 11, 2011 - Click image to enlarge.

You can clearly see the frigid air moving in from the north with all the blues and deep purples! The computer models often have a hard time handling these type air masses and can often forecast temperatures too warm. So, we could potentially be even colder than what is shown in the map. 30s for highs and at least mid teens for lows seem very reasonable, but I could easily see a couple of days where we don't get out of the 20s and there could be some lows in the single digits. Could it be colder than last January's recording setting cold? It may very well be. Can we say more problems with Jackson's ever aging water pipes?

The thing about these air masses is that they are very shallow by the time they reach us. Shallow cold air masses can be very, very stubborn to get rid of. Once the cold arrives, it may stick around for a while. The long range models try to warm us up the end of next week, but I think they are pushing the cold out too soon. It could take a week or more to recover from the extreme cold. This is the type of cold that will encompass much of the country. It isn't going away overnight.

Now, let's add some fun to the mix. The southern branch of the jet stream has been active lately. The New Year's Eve severe weather, today's rain, and the weekend system are all closely tied to the southern branch of the jet stream. We will need to watch closely to see if it remains active. Why? Shallow cold air at the surface being filtered in by a monster high pressure system to the north combined with warm, moist air riding over the cold air at the surface spells trouble. This type of pattern would be a classic set up for an ice storm. The GFS has hinted at some winter precipitation trying to impact us either with the weekend system later next week. Add to that we are in a La Niña winter, which in the past, have resulted in Mississippi ice storms. Stay tuned!

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

My Top 10 Weather Events Of 2010

2011-01-03T09:44:00.000-06:00

2010 is gone and it is time to look back at some of what I think are some of the bigger weather stories of 2010. Let's start!

April 24th Tornado - Without a doubt, the devastating tornado that tracked across almost the entire State of Mississippi on Saturday, April 24th is at the top of my list. The tornado tracked from just west of Tallulah, LA to just north of Sturgis, MS. The track was nearly 150 miles, making it the longest track tornado in the country since 1992. The tornado was rated EF-4, with maximum sustained winds of 170mph and it was nearly 2 miles wide at its max. Ten people were killed and dozens injured. Yazoo City took the brunt of the tornado. The Ebenezer community of southern Holmes Co. also had devastating damage.
Frigid January - Mississippi saw some of its coldest temperatures in 10+ years in early January. The Jackson Metro area spent nearly 70 hours below freezing. Temperatures stayed in the 10s and 20s during this time. The cold weather proved to be difficult for the City of Jackson's aging water pipes. Dozens of pipes burst in the city, causing people to have to boil water and businesses to close.
February 12th Snow - Winter 2009-2010 brought our area several rounds of snow. The most significant and widespread snow occurred on February 12th. Snow totals ranged from around 2" in the Delta to as much as 5"-8" across parts of the I-20 corridor and points southward. Dallas, TX picked up 12.5" of snow from the same system. This was an all-time record for them. Also, by that night, parts of every state in the country had snow on the ground!
The Drought - At the end of 2010, 47.22" of precipitation had been recorded at Jackson-Evers Int'l Airport. This is 8.73" below what we would expect in an average year and nearly 10" below the total for 2009. The drought is far worse the further northwest you go. For example, Vicksburg, MS finished up 2010 with only 34.39" of precipitation. This is nearly 25" below normal for the year! The numbers are similar for Greenville, MS. The drought continues as we head into 2011.
New Year's Eve Metro Tornado - 2010 just had to go out with a bang. The set-up for severe weather was nothing like we had on April 24th, but the chances were not 0% either. The risk for widespread severe weather was low. However, I always try to stress that it only takes 1 tornado in a populated/crowded area to make it a bad severe weather day. This was the case on New Year's Eve, as an impressive super cell developed and moved across Hinds and Rankin Counties. This super cell storm produced an EF-2 tornado that had estimated winds of 120mph in the Byram area and estimated winds of 110mph in the Pearl area. The total track length was 26 miles. Though there was a lot of damage, there were no injuries and no one was killed. There were a couple more tornadoes on New Year's Eve in our area; including one in Attala Co. This tornado was ranked an EF-2. Warren Co. also had an EF-0 tornado. In total, this severe weather event produced at least 6 tornadoes in Mississippi.¹
November 29th-30th Tornado Outbreak - Strong wind shear (changing of wind direction/speed with height) combined with an unstable atmosphere to help produce the first fall tornado outbreak in Mississippi in six years. In all, 13 tornadoes were confirmed, five of them strong EF-2 to EF-3 tornadoes. The strongest tornado tracked from northwest Leake Co. into Attala Co. just southwest of Kosciusko. This tornado damaged numerous mobile homes and resulted in six injuries. Yazoo City was hit again this night. One tornado, an EF-2 struck just southwest of town. Another EF-2 tornado caused damage in downtown Yazoo City. Thankfully there were no injuries. However, an EF-2 tornado in the Starkville area resulted in 15 injuries. Finally, another EF-2 was confirmed in Smith Co.
July & August Heat Wave - Numerous record high temperatures were broken across the area in early August. Most of the region saw triple digit heat for about five days. The hottest temperature in Jackson was 105° recorded on August 2nd. This marked the 10th warmest day on record in Jackson (when you average high and low temperature for that date). It also marked the 3rd highest temperature recorded in Jackson.²
Other Tornado Days - A couple of other local severe weather events stand out to me. One being January 20th-21th. Two tornadoes were confirmed with this event. One an EF-2 near Hazlehurst in Copiah Co. The other a weak EF-0 in Madison Co. There were no injuries in either tornado. Also, on March 11th, there were two EF-1 tornadoes confirmed in Scott Co. No injuries in those.
Busy Hurricane Season - 2010 went down as the third busiest hurricane season on record in the Atlantic Basin, tied with 1887 and 1995. There were a total of 19 named storms, 12 of which became hurricanes. There were 5 major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or higher. Despite the active hurricane season, the United States was spared any significant system.
La Niña - The phenomena, La Niña

Finally, I wanted to share with you some other interesting weather that stood out, but isn't a part of the top 10. I will admit it, I have a bias for Oklahoma since I spent almost three years there covering weather. Wild and fast changing weather is nothing new for them. But, they had some really large weather extremes this past year, even when you don't consider the 2009 Christmas Eve Blizzard. In late January, a devastating ice storm crippled much of the state. Many people were without power for weeks! On May 10th, Oklahoma saw its 2nd largest outbreak of tornadoes on record. There were a total of 55 confirmed tornadoes. Six days later, Oklahoma City was hit with a multi-million dollar hail storm. By the time the storm that produced the hail moved out, the scene looked similar to the snowstorm from five months before. Nearly two-dozen people were hurt during the hail storm. On June 14th, three people were killed and over 100 injured in central Oklahoma during a multi-million dollar flash flood event. The state ended 2010 in a drought.

I also think the 2010 Christmas Blizzard/snowstorm on the east coast deserves a mention. Snow fell from the southeast part of the country all the way to New England, where some areas had over two feet of snow!

Here's to a quieter 2011!

¹ - As of this writing, damage surveys are still being done. It is possible additional tornadoes will be confirmed.
² - 105° has been recorded 19 other times in Jackson.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Attala Co. Tornado Rated EF-2

2011-01-02T18:03:00.007-06:00

Survey teams from the Jackson National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office have been out looking at more storm damage from Friday's storms. The damage in Attala Co. has been rated EF-2, which maximum estimated winds of 135 mph. The damage in Holmes Co. has been determined to have been due to estimated straight-line winds of 60-65mph in Rear-Flank Downdraft of the same storm. Just got the Warren Co. update. That tornado was rated EF-0 and was only on the ground for a very brief period.

Here is the preliminary report on the Attala Co. tornado and Holmes Co. damage:

COUNTY: ATTALA
BEGINNING POINT: 4 ESE DURANT AT 1202 AM (1/1/11)
ENDING POINT: 7 N ETHEL AT 1226 AM (1/1/11)
RATING: EF-2
MAX ESTIMATED WINDS: 135 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 23 MILES
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 3/4 MILE
FATALITIES: NONE
INJURIES: 1

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE: THE TORNADO BEGAN IN THE VICINITY OF STATE 
HIGHWAY 12 EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DURANT. THE TORNADO MOVED 
EAST-NORTHEAST...INITIALLY PRODUCING DAMAGE OF EF-1 INTENSITY TO 
TREES...AND DAMAGING THE ROOF OF AT LEAST ONE HOME. AS THE TORNADO 
APPROACHED STATE HIGHWAY 19...IT INTENSIFIED AND BEGAN CAUSING 
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE...SNAPPING AND UPROOTING HUNDREDS OF TREES. 
AFTER CROSSING HIGHWAY 19...IT CAUSED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO A CHURCH 
CONFERENCE CENTER...HEAVILY DAMAGING THE ROOF OF THE MAIN CHURCH 
BUILDING AND CAUSING MAJOR DAMAGE TO SEVERAL CAMP BUILDINGS. IN THIS 
AREA...THE TORNADO ALSO CAUSED SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE TO SEVERAL 
HOMES AND DESTROYED A NUMBER OF OUTBUILDINGS. FROM HERE...THE 
TORNADO CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEAST...CONTINUING TO CAUSE MAJOR TREE 
DAMAGE AS IT CROSSED STATE HIGHWAY 35 AT HESTERVILLE. AS A WIDE... 
STRONG TORNADO MOVING THROUGH A HEAVILY FORESTED AREA...THIS TORNADO 
WAS A MAJOR DESTROYER OF TIMBER...SNAPPING OR UPROOTING THOUSANDS OF 
TREES. THE TORNADO EVENTUALLY WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED TO THE NORTH 
OF ETHEL.

THE SAME STORM CAUSED AREAS OF STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE OVER 
SOUTHERN HOLMES COUNTY. A NUMBER OF TREES WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED 
NEAR STATE HIGHWAYS 17 AND 14 WEST OF GOODMAN...AND A HIGHWAY SIGN 
WAS SNAPPED AT THE GOODMAN EXIT ON INTERSTATE 55. THE PATTERN OF 
DAMAGE HERE INDICATED THAT THIS DAMAGE WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT OF THIS INTENSE STORM...AND OCCURRED AROUND 
1155 PM ON DECEMBER 31ST. THERE ALSO WERE SPOTS OF SPORADIC REAR 
FLANK DOWNDRAFT TREE DAMAGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE TORNADO OVER ATTALA 
COUNTY...PRIMARILY JUST AS THE TORNADO STARTED.

I put together this graphic to show the April 24, 2010 tornado track, compared to the New Year's Eve tornado. Click the image to make it larger.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Hinds/Rankin Tornado Rated EF-2

2011-01-01T19:33:00.002-06:00

The NWS survey teams have been out looking at damage from the New Year's Eve storms. The damage in the south and east metro was determined to be caused by a tornado. The survey team rated it an EF-2, with maximum sustained winds of 120mph. Below is an animation I made showing the track of the tornado, followed by the Public Information Statement on the tornado from the National Weather Service. The animation was designed for me to use on the air; it isn't the best for YouTube though.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
504 PM CST SAT JAN 1 2011

...EF2 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN THE JACKSON METRO AREA...

PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY INFORMATION

COUNTY: HINDS AND RANKIN
BEGINNING POINT: 3 MILES W OF TERRY AT 444 PM
ENDING POINT: 4 MILES NW BRANDON AT 525 PM
RATING: EF-2
MAX ESTIMATED WINDS: 120 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 26 MILES
MAXIMUM WIDTH: 1/2 MILE

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE: THE TORNADO FIRST TOUCHED DOWN IN MIDWAY ESTATES
JUST TO THE WEST OF MIDWAY ROAD. INITIALLY THE TORNADO KNOCKED DOWN A
FEW TREES AND CAUSED MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS. THE TORNADO
TRACKED NORTHEAST CROSSING TANK ROAD...GREEN GABLE ROAD AND LEBANON-
PINEGROVE ROAD MAINLY DOWNING TREES AND CAUSING MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

THE TORNADO THEN MOVED NEARLY PARALLEL TO INTERSTATE 55 AND PASSED
THROUGH BYRAM. NUMEROUS STRUCTURES WERE DAMAGED...NUMEROUS BILLBOARDS
WERE BLOWN OUT...A TANKER TRUCK WAS OVERTURNED...NUMEROUS POWER
POLES WERE SNAPPED AND NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. THE
TORNADO WAS THE MOST INTENSE AT THIS POINT WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE
AROUND 120 MPH. ALSO...THE MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH OF 1/2 MILE OCCURRED IN
BYRAM.

THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED THE PEARL RIVER INTO RICHLAND. THE TORNADO
WAS MUCH WEAKER AT THIS POINT WITH MAINLY TREE DAMAGE OCCURRING. AS
THE TORNADO MOVED INTO PEARL...IT STRENGTHENED AGAIN. ROOF DAMAGE
OCCURRED TO A MOVIE THEATER AND A KROGER. THE ROOF WAS COMPLETELY
TORN OFF A CAR WASH. IN THE PEARL NEIGHBORHOODS...NUMEROUS TREES WERE
KNOCKED DOWN...SEVERAL OF WHICH FELL ON HOUSES. SEVERAL OF THE HOUSES
WERE TOTAL LOSSES.

THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED AIRPORT ROAD AND ONTO THE JACKSON-EVERS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT GROUNDS...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT
TERMINAL. A ROOF WAS HEAVILY DAMAGED TO A WAREHOUSE AND NUMEROUS
TREES WERE KNOCKED DOWN. THE TORNADO THEN TRACKED ALONG COOPER ROAD
MAINLY DOWNING TREES AND THEN LIFTED AS IT MOVED ACROSS LUCKNEY ROAD
JUST A FEW MILES SOUTH OF LAKELAND DRIVE.

THE HIGHEST ESTIMATED WINDS IN RANKIN COUNTY WERE 110 MPH WHICH
OCCURRED IN PEARL.

I'll post more updates as I get them.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

New Year's Eve Tornadoes

2011-01-01T03:54:00.000-06:00

It is almost 4am and I'm getting ready to wind down my duties at WLBT. Byram, Pearl, and Attala County seem to be the hardest hit by damage, likely caused by tornadoes. Most of the night went by without any injuries, but I just learned of two injuries in Attala Co. There many trees and power lines down in the Pearl and Byram areas, along with some structure damage. The Jackson National Weather Service will be out surveying the damage areas today. As I get updates, I will post them here. WLBT will also have several news crews in the hard hit areas. SkyCopter 3 is on standby to go up later today to give us an aerial view of the damage. It appears one of our photographers may have gotten video of a tornado near Richland on Friday afternoon. I in the process of looking over that raw video. It is tough to see as it was getting dark at the time.

Here are links to the WLBT stories about the severe weather:
Possible Tornado Rakes Across Central Mississippi
Salvation Army Aids Byram & Rankin Counties
Flooding Causes Road Closures

Coming up later today I will update this post regarding the damage surveys. I'm also working on a post for the top 10 weather stories of 2010.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

New Year's Eve Severe Update

2010-12-30T18:40:00.001-06:00

I still expect severe storms to impact our area tomorrow afternoon and into the night. The SPC has upgraded most of our area to a slight risk of severe storms. See map below.

Wind blowing off the Gulf of Mexico the past couple of days has really helped to increase our moisture. Dewpoint temperatures are well into the 60s, with some areas to our southwest around 70! That's a tropical airmass and we don't see that too often this time of year around here. The map below shows the surface pressure/temperature/dewpoint analysis. The green blob is the area of higher dewpoint or "tropical" air. It is nosing into our area.

We will have a risk of tornadoes, but damaging winds will likely be a higher risk. If we see any tornadoes, they would likely be strong due to the strong low level winds moving over us. Southwest Mississippi has the highest chance to see tornadoes. This would include areas like Natchez, McComb, Brookhaven, Vicksburg, and even Jackson. This does not look like it will be like the November 29th severe outbreak. I expect mainly isolated to widely scattered severe reports. It takes only one tornado in a populated area to make it a "bad" system, so keep it all in perspective. Also, as often is the case, the finer details of this severe weather event will be told in the morning. If we have more sun, the atmosphere will be more unstable than forecast, helping to fuel thunderstorms. I mentioned a few days ago that the main surface low and strongest upper level winds will pass well to our northwest. Should this system take a track further southeast, it would increase our risk for severe weather, especially tornadoes.

With the tropical air trying to move in, heavy rain may cause flash flooding IF the system slows down as has been forecast by several models. We've been very dry lately, so it make take more rain to make flash flooding an issue. It is something to keep in mind. Rainfall totals will be on the order of 1-2" for most areas, with locally higher amounts around 3".

Despite the weather being bad on a holiday, it is important to stay weather aware. We'll likely have numerous warnings tomorrow afternoon and evening. I'll be Tweeting that information out on Twitter, so follow me by clicking here.

- Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

New Year's Storms?

2010-12-27T22:51:00.000-06:00

After record cold temperatures across Mississippi, some big changes are coming our way by mid-week as we see a large scale weather pattern change take place.¹ This will return us to above normal temperatures and better rain chances for our area.

Below is an image from BUFKIT in "overview" mode. The timeline runs right to left and it really helps us to visualize forecast model data. The data I'm using is from the Monday 12z (6am) run of the GFS computer model.

I have plotted temperature (red line), dew point (solid green line), precipitation (green bars), and OMEGA or lift (blue and red "circles"). There are two main systems that will impact our weather. The first will arrive Wednesday and continue into Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. There will be some very good "lift" with the system, which should help produce some heavy rain across our area. There may be a few storms, but I'm not concerned about severe weather with the first system.

The second system we need to watch more closely. The two main long range models we use, The GFSx model and the ECMWF (the European) model, have had a difficult time handling the timing of the second system. On Saturday, the ECMWF had the system coming through on New Year's Eve. The GFS had it coming through New Year's Day. By Sunday, the models had flipped with the GFS passing it through on New Year's Eve and the ECMWF on New Year's Day. I've been looking over the newest data tonight and the ECMWF is even slower, almost by a full 24 hours, the GFS model. Whether the system comes through Friday or Saturday, we will have had several days of winds coming in off the Gulf of Mexico. This will help bring in the lower level moisture, an ingredient we need to get heavy rain and strong storms. The GFS model shows the system will have some decent "lift" with it, too.

The map below shows the Jet Stream winds for late New Year's Eve. The light blue colors are the strongest winds. It looks like those will pass us to our northwest with the main low pressure system. This may keep us from having a big severe weather outbreak.

One final graphic is also from BUFKIT and uses the 12z GFS data from Monday. I just want to point out the severe weather indices we use to help forecast severe weather. The great thing about the BUFKIT program is it quickly shows us the forecast values for the various indices for a specific time period. In this case we are looking at Friday afternoon. Overall the indices are at levels that would potentially give us severe weather. While the levels are not impressive, I think we at least have the potential to see isolated to widely scattered severe storms. That would include a potential for tornadoes.

Once again, with it being a holiday weekend and lots of you have plans, you will want to stay tuned to the forecast. Over the next couple of days I'll be able to nail down the timing better. Also, if the track of main surface low changes and is closer to us, it would give us a little better chance a more widespread severe weather event.

¹ - Vicksburg's low was 13° this morning. This broke the old record of 15° that was set in 1983. Greenwood, MS also set a record low of 16° breaking the old record of 25° set in 2006 and 1999. More record lows are possible tonight.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Flurries & Snow Showers Today

2010-12-26T09:02:00.001-06:00

The radar image above shows an areas of snow flurries and embedded heavier snow showers across central Mississippi. Very cold air is being ushered in on the back side of a huge storm system that is bringing widespread heavy snow to the Carolinas and Virginia. This very cold air is working hard to wring out what little moisture we have left. The end result are the flurries and a few heavier snow showers.

Lots of questions coming in on Facebook, Twitter, and e-mail wanting to know if there will be any accumulation. Several hours ago I didn't think so, but a heavier snow shower band has set up and that did cause a very minor dusting in patchy areas in and around Ridgeland. The rooftops in that area also have a dusting on them. This snow band moved over Hawkins Field in Jackson where it reduced the visibility down below 2 miles just a short while ago. So, in areas where the snow is a little heavier, there may be a minor accumulation on the grass and elevated surfaces. Temperatures are near freezing and while I can't rule out an isolated slick spot or two on bridges, we won't have any big travel problems. Right now there is no advisory from the weather service. That may change depending on how things develop over the next couple of hours. I can promise you that you will not get snowed in.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Christmas Letter 2010

2010-12-26T02:02:00.002-06:00

Each year, enclosed with our Christmas cards, my wife and I attach a letter telling some of our stories from the year. Here is this year's letter. Enjoy.
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Eric, Kristina, Rascal & Teddi - November 2010

Dear Friends and Family,

Why do the years seem to go by faster and faster?

2010 started out with Kristina's birthday, celebrated with our Mississippi 'family'. Many games were played and there was plenty of food and silliness to go around. Mississippi had a very cold month with over 60 hours below freezing. There was a water crisis in which hundreds of pipes busted causing water to have to be boiled and businesses were forced to close for a week. In late January, we made a trip to Virginia to visit family. We got to spend some quality time with our nieces and young great nephew. We played lots of games and had a lot of fun.

Mississippi snow?!?!

February brought an unusual event to Mississippi, snow. Not just a dusting either, but about 5 inches in our neighborhood. With the bad weather, Eric worked about 36 hours straight. When he got home, the first thing he wanted to do was go play in the snow. That meant we got to do something else that isn't common in Mississippi; go sledding! That night we had a game party at our house. It actually ended up snowing several more times that month.

In March we made a trip to Illinois for Kristina's grandmother’s birthday bash. Lots of extended family came to town for that occasion. Much fun and visiting by one and all. March also saw Kristina's parents' wedding anniversary. We also got to play with baby ducks and chicks at a local farm store.

Kristina took a painting class in April, along with several friends, at a local place called, Easely Amused. We also had an Easter egg hunt at our house for some kids from our church.

Eric delivering weather radios.

April also was a busy weather month, with an EF 4 tornado ripping across Mississippi, setting some records for our state. The damage was north of us, but not too far. Eric covered that storm all day for WLBT. Afterwards, we loaded the car with what supplies we could fit and headed to one of the devastated areas that was remote and not getting much help by agencies. We spent three separate days helping there, organizing and passing out supplies, and making new friends. This was the worst tornado in the country the year 2010. We were planning to go back to help with more recovery, but Kristina stepped wrong onto our carport, fell, and sprained her ankle. It took several months for her to recover. She was on crutches for a while, then in a boot. Eric was able to deliver 10 weather radios to needy families in the affected areas though.

In May we had to invest in a new washing machine, and ended up getting front loader. We love it! It is energy effecting and uses less water and soap. Kristina also took a second painting class with some of the same friends, since the first class was such fun. Also in May, Eric cut off about 12 inches of Kristina's hair. The cut pony tails were sent to Locks of Love to be made into a wig for a child. Kristina spent a lot of time over the spring months making quilts for friends and family. She would get one done, someone would see it, then want one for themselves.

Watching the MBraves!

Eric's garden took up a lot of June, and was fun to watch grow and eat the produce. We got to take two young friends to a Mississippi Braves baseball game in June as well. It stormed when we arrived and we got to watch them cover the field, but the game was able to be played. We enjoyed the adventure! We also got to see a beautiful double rainbow when the rain let up. We went to several more ballgames over the summer.

"Hello," Natchez!

In July we made a wonderful trip to Natchez, MS, which is about 2 hours southwest of us. It was our first time there. We stayed one night at the historic Dunleith Bed and Breakfast. It was a beautiful plantation home, and very comfortable; lots of stairs to climb though. We toured several plantation homes, including the Rosalie, Longwood, Stanton Hall, among others. The trip was very special and we would love to visit Natchez again. There was so much to see that we never got to. On the way back home, we stopped and visited our dear elderly neighbors who are now living most of the time in the country with other relatives. They don’t come up often, so it was nice to see them. We miss them a lot. Later in July, we made a day trip to Port Gibson, MS, which is about an hour from us. We drove down the Natchez Trace Parkway and stopped at several historic sites along the way. We saw several historic churches in Port Gibson and toured a Civil War battlefield site.

There were several weeks in July and August that were stifling hot, and we took pity on two stray dogs who wandered our neighborhood streets. We gave them water, and after a while, food as well. Both dogs were very friendly and sweet, and they must have decided they liked us. They spent a lot of time lying on the cool cement of our carport. We went to Illinois in the first part of August, and when we came home to Mississippi, we didn't see the stray dogs anywhere.

Several days went by and the dogs didn't reappear. We called Animal Control to find out if they had been picked up. We were told to call the Mississippi Animal Rescue League, known as MARL, because Animal Control took stray animals to them. We drove to MARL, and asked if two dogs matching the stray dogs descriptions had been brought in. They searched their information cards and found the only strays that had been brought in had come from our street in Ridgeland. So the worker, Beth (who we knew well. She used to own a pet store that we visited. We even sold her baby guppies), led us to go see if it was them. It was, in fact, the strays we had been feeding. They were so excited to see us! Up to that point, we had been unsure what we wanted to do about these two stray dogs. Seeing them in the cage at MARL, and their excitement to see us, clinched it for us. So, a week later we found ourselves going back to MARL, this time to adopt these two dogs and bring them home.

Bringing the dogs home from MARL.

Rascal, a basset hound/lab mix, and Teddi, a terrier/beagle/lab mix, joined our family on August 25th. We spent a good while getting them healthy and up-to-date on their shots. Come to find out, they were about 6 months old when we adopted them, and quite probably litter mates, according to the vet. Rascal was about 33 pounds and Teddi about 20 pounds when we brought them home. As of this letter, Teddi is nearly 30 pounds and has grown much taller than she was, but Rascal tips the scales at 54 pounds! They may yet grow a little more. They are very sweet. We have questioned our sanity several times, and both dogs have tried to give us plenty of gray hair, but they are a joy to have around most days. We work with them most days on training and they are able to do several tricks, including sit, stay, roll over, and shake. The dogs live in the backyard due to our allergies, but this also meant an end to Eric's garden as the dogs dug it up!

Kristina welcomed a new class of 3 and 4 year olds at the end of August. This is her fourth year teaching at Colonial Heights, and she still loves her co-workers and of course, 'her kids'.

Eric & his "weather" themed cake.

We celebrated Eric's birthday in September. We spent about 10 days in Virginia and this marked the first time in about 10 years that Eric has actually been home on his birthday. Normally the weather messes up vacation around that time, but this year was fine. As a part of the birthday celebrations, most of Eric's family went out to a newly remodeled putt-putt place called Tiny Town. Upon returning to Mississippi, Eric had another birthday party for our 'Mississippi family'. There was plenty of food and a space jump. The next day we took several kids to the Ringing Brother's Circus, which Eric has wanted to go to for years.

Our lawsuit against the City of Jackson, which was decided in our favor last fall, was appealed. We’ve learned that justice is slow. The case only got put into the hands of the Supreme Court of Mississippi on October 11th. So we continue to wait. We’re told there may be a final decision by early Spring 2011.

The new weather set.

Eric spent much of September and October helping with a major upgrade and overhaul of the weather department at WLBT. New weather systems to install and customize, which Eric is very adept at, along with demolition and installation of a new weather set. Eric got in on the demo and also the installation more than we anticipated. It has been quite a production, and is not finished yet.

October also brought the Mississippi State Fair, which we enjoy every year. It is a lot of walking but also a lot of fun. Eric enjoys the rides and he probably rode the most this year than he has in years past.

We’ve spent a lot of time this year with the children of some of Kristina's co-workers. They range in age from 2 to 14. We've had them over many times for 'spend the night' parties, where we play games, act silly, go on outings, and stay up late. These kids are very special to us. We work hard to be good examples for them and to listen to them. They seem to love to spend time with us as much as we enjoy spending time with them.

Thanksgiving was spent at home in Mississippi, and was a quiet, relaxing day. We had our Thanksgiving meal at Golden Corral. It was very good.

We marked our wedding anniversary in December. We are going to Lake Charles, LA the week leading up to Christmas as Eric will be helping a sister station to WLBT that is short staffed. We will be spending Christmas in Mississippi this year because Eric has to work.

Each year we remind you all, and this year is no different, take time to remember the TRUE meaning of Christmas, and celebrate Jesus’ birth! Don't let what is important get lost in the busyness of shopping, presents, and food. Jesus saves. Ask Him in your life today!

Love in His name,

Eric, Kristina,

Rascal & Teddi

Christmas Day Snow Chances

2010-12-23T11:40:00.001-06:00

There is a high probability of snow on Christmas. Just not here. I know, I'm mean. I've seen some mention of snow though and I wanted to break down some of the model data so you get a better idea of what is going on.
First....the storm system that slammed California with flooding rains this week is FINALLY moving east. It will provide moisture for us to get some rain on Christmas.

Low pressure over SW US will bring us rain on Christmas. Click image to see animation.

Model data continues to suggest that as the SW US low pressure heads east, it will team up with some energy coming down from the Plains. There are questions on exactly when and where this will happen. Unfortunately, if you want snow on Christmas, it probably won't happen in time for us to get in on some winter weather.

The map below is from the 06z (12am) run of the GFS computer model. The time period covered on the map is for 6pm CST on Christmas Day. It shows a low pressure in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The dashed blue lines indicate areas that would be cold enough for it to snow. The green blogs indicate areas of precipitation.

If you enlarge the image (by clicking on it) you'll see that even though colder air is moving into Mississippi, the moisture is mostly of the area and over into Alabama and further east.

Now let's look at the same model and model run using BUFKIT in overview mode. The timeline runs right to left. This data is for Jackson.

The bars on the graphic indicate precp. I have OMEGA ("lift") turned on, but there just isn't much to the system when it reaches us. I've also plotted the best area to see snowflakes form.

Further out in time, the model data forms a pretty big storm for the southeast part of the country, once the southern system meets up with the energy coming in from the northwest. We call this process "phasing". If that happened over us or west of us, we'd have a much bigger system to deal with and possibly a higher chance of snow. The computer models have slowed the development of the Gulf low down. IF it is able to form further west and IF the colder air can arrive before the moisture is gone, we would have something snow-wise to talk about. But, right now folks, it just isn't there. I'm sorry, but a few flurries isn't a "snowstorm," even by Mississippi standards. Don't let the water cooler chatter or wish casting get your hopes up. I'll post another update later this evening as new model data comes in.

If you are traveling east into areas like Atlanta, GA, Greenville, SC or Charlotte, NC, you will definitely want to watch this system. There could end up being a significant snow for December for those areas.

I'm getting ready to weather anchor my last newscast for KPLA, then make the 5 hour drive back to Jackson.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

I'm Working For KPLC-TV This Week

2010-12-21T17:58:00.001-06:00

WLBT is owned by Raycom Media, which owns 40 or so other TV stations around the country, mostly across the south. There is one station in Hawaii! Last week, corporate called wanting to know if any meteorologists from WLBT could travel to Lake Charles, LA to help out our sister station, KPLC.¹ Recently, fellow Raycom Meteorologist Jeff Jumper, who worked weekend weather at KPLC, transferred to the Raycom station in Montgomery, WSFA. KPLC has been in search of a replacement since then. Unfortunately KPLC's morning meteorologist had a family emergency. She recently had a baby, who needed an involved surgery.²

December is always a big vacation month at WLBT. I was actually scheduled to be off. However, as soon as I learned the circumstances of what was going on and I talked it over with my wife, I knew that giving up our time off to go help out was the right thing to do. After all, after our near fatal car wreck in 2006, WLBT and Raycom helped my family out tremendously. This is a great way to re-pay the them.

So, last Friday Kristina and I loaded our car with our suitcases and both dogs to head to make the 5 hour drive to Lake Charles. On Saturday, I arrived at KPLC and their Chief Meteorologist, Wade Hampton, gave me the tour. It is eerie how similar KPLC is to WLBT. Both buildings are from about the same era. What is different, especially for me, is that they have no weather set per-se. They have a weather office, which is located in their newsroom and removed from their studio. Here are a couple of pictures:
Left: The main work area in the weather office.

Right: Looking into the weather office from the newsroom.

They can broadcast from their weather office, but from what I've been told they don't do it very much. Their studio is smaller than the WLBT studio.

You may know that WLBT recently upgraded weather equipment and also launched a new graphics package. KPLC did the same in the late summer. Their computers are identical to the ones I use at WLBT. Most of the graphics are the same as well. So, I needed no training. I literally walked in off the street and started building a show. I've actually gotten a few graphic ideas from them that I will be bringing back to WLBT.

Everyone is super friendly and I think I have fit in very well. Very much a "family" feeling like at WLBT. I've gotten some e-mail and Facebook messages wanting to know when I am coming back. You will see me back on the air at WLBT Christmas night. I'll be helping KPLC on their morning and noon shows for the rest of the week. A new hire is being trained now. As soon as he gets trained and gets all the business stuff done that goes along with a new job, he will be ready to start on the air. Hopefully by Thursday or Friday at the latest.

Me running with the dogs in the dog park.

Kristina and I are enjoying our stay in Lake Charles. It is actually nice to be away from all of the traffic we have to deal with in the Jackson metro, especially this time of year. We've tried several local places to eat. They have a very under used dog park just outside of town that we took our dogs to on Sunday. That was a lot of fun for them as they could run free without a leash and, since it is fenced in, we didn't have to worry about them running into traffic.

¹ - The terms "sister station" and "affiliate" often get confused. A sister station is a station that is owned by the same company. An affiliate is a station that is a part of the same broadcast network, like NBC, CBS or ABC. Some Raycom stations are NBC, others are either CBS or ABC affiliates. They also own a few FOX affiliates.

² - Baby Lucus had his surgery last Friday. He is doing well and will hopefully go home soon. Please remember the family in your prayers.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Hilary & His Short Sleeve Shirts

2010-12-13T09:03:00.002-06:00

Last night when I returned for the late news, I wanted to grab a picture of someone dressed to face the brutal gusty winds and cold temperatures. Roslyn Anderson was my target as she is normally dressed like we live at the North Pole. Turns out she was not at work, so instead I found this guy.

Meet Hilary, known around the station at Hill. No matter the weather, Hill always wears a short sleeve t-shirt to work. From stifling summer heat, to arctic air in the dead of winter, you'll find Hill in a short sleeved shirt. And, he never wears a jacket. I'm not sure how he does it.

While taking Hill's picture, one of our Associate Producers, Cat, walked into the studio. He was also wearing a short sleeve shirt. I don't get it.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Update On Tonight's Storms

2010-12-11T08:57:00.000-06:00

First, a look at the 24 hour temperature difference across the country. Click the graphic to enlarge.

When you get a big change in temperatures like the one we will experience, you normally get storms. That will be the case today and tonight. Often times the storms are severe, but that may not be the case this time. The reason? It has been a fairly cold week. It has only been in the last 24-36 hours that the airmass has been trying to recover from the very cold temperatures we had this week. It has recovered enough that the atmosphere has enough energy to get storms to form, but possibly not enough for those storms to get very strong and become severe. However, ahead of and along the actual cold front, we will have windy conditions. These winds will also be changing direction as you go through the atmosphere. At the Earth's surface (where we live), the winds will be blowing out of the south. As you go up several thousand feet, the winds will be blowing more out of the southwest and west and they will be stronger. This is called wind shear and is necessary to get tornadoes. While the chance of the storms becoming strong enough to produce tornadoes is very low, the chance isn't 0%. Because of this, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has put our area in a Slight Risk for severe storms through tonight. See the graphic below for more.

The high resolution computer model we run 4 times a day at WLBT is called StormCast. The newest model run just came in and it has a line of storms moving through northwestern parts of our area around 8PM.

This is fairly consistent with other model data, so it looks like this evening will offer best rain chances for the day. The front will move fast, and it will be in and out by Midnight for just about everyone. It still looks an average of a third to a half-inch of rain for most areas, more for areas that see stronger storms.

I'll post more updates on here as needed; otherwise I'll be posting on Twitter.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

The 48 Hour Weather Story: Warmer, Wetter, Colder

2010-12-10T04:58:00.000-06:00

Ready for some warmer weather? I have good news! It is coming this afternoon. The bad news? It will only be here for a couple of days, before colder air returns. In fact, Sunday looks down right raw.

Let's look at a couple of surface maps from the HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center). They show a forecast of surface features and precipitation. I've added my own artwork to explain what you are looking at. Click the images to make them larger.

The last image is from BUFKIT. The timeline runs right to left. I'm using data from the 0z (6pm) run of the GFS model.

The red line is temperature. Green line is dewpoint. The green bars are rain, with dark green bars showing convective precipitation (that is, thunderstorms). There will probably be some storms with lightning and hail this weekend, but I'm not impressed with the chances for severe weather. Let me explain further.

Though there will be some pretty good wind shear (winds changing direction as you go into the atmosphere), lots of clouds and areas of showers during the day on Saturday will really help to limit warming. That's why at the top of this post I used the word "warmer" rather than "warm". One of the severe weather indices we look at is something called CAPE. This has to do with how fast the air can rise in the atmosphere. The faster the air can rise, the more unstable the atmosphere is and more likely you are to get severe thunderstorms. There is a number value to CAPE (I won't bother you with the units that go with that number)¹. The higher the number, the more volatile the atmosphere potentially is. You can get storms with a CAPE of 500, for example, but the real nasty storms are normally not going to form in that type of environment. You'd like to see a CAPE of around 1,000 or higher to get some good severe weather. But, you can have a CAPE 2000 or more and not get any storms!

All of the model data I've looked at over the past few days has forecast CAPE below 500. The newest data is no different. So, while there will be enough CAPE or instability to produce a few thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night, it likely won't be enough to make for a widespread severe weather event. With some very cold air aloft moving in, hail will certainly be possible and to a lesser extent gusty winds. If we get more sunshine and the CAPE is higher than what the models show, we would have a higher chance of tornadoes. Right now I don't see that happening. As always you'll want to keep updated over the next couple of days.

Get ready for some COLD AIR on Sunday. Most areas will not get out of the 30s. It will be windy, too, making for wind chills in the 20s. YUCK! As for any snow on the back side of the system, looks like the moisture will be gone before the true cold air gets here. IF we see anything, it would just be flurries.

¹ For those that really want to know, CAPE is measured in Joules per kilogram.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Fast Food Dining Etiquette

2010-12-08T10:22:00.001-06:00

I've told this story to several people and have gotten split responses. I decided to take it to the masses!

My wife and I were out-n-about last week. It was near dinnertime and we had somewhere else to be soon. We decided to go really unhealthy and eat fast food. Neither of us wanted what the other wanted. We are picky like that sometimes. I suggested that we could get her food, take it to where I wanted to eat, and we could both eat at the restaurant. We got into a discussion on fast food dining etiquette. Namely, is it rude to take, for example, food from Subway into Burger King and eat it while the other member of the party buys and eats food from Burger King? Kristina thought this was very rude to do. I am of the opinion that it isn't rude as long as someone is actually buying food from the dine-in place. Maybe I am totally wrong. If you think so, put me in my place. I need it sometimes. She did eventually go along with me. But, frankly I just did not see that it was that big of a deal and a highly doubt the workers behind the counter would have even noticed. As someone pointed out to me, often times there is nobody at the counter.

In fairness to my wife, our situation the other night was not exactly identical to the example I gave above. In our actual case, it involved taking a similar food item into the second restaurant. She felt like this was especially rude since they sold a similar product. Does this make a difference?

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Winter Weather Advisory Early Wednesday

2010-12-07T22:49:00.000-06:00

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for late tonight and early Wednesday. These are the areas in blue on the graphic below.

Here is the radar as of 10:20pm tonight. Wow, looks like a lot of RAIN falling to our west!

But, check out the weather observations across Louisiana as of 10:00pm. (Click graphic to enlarge)

While the weather system moving in is potent, two big things are going to work against this being more than a winter weather tease. 1) Limited moisture. The moisture the system does have will first have to be used to moisten the atmosphere. This process will also help cool the temperatures between the cloud (where the snowflakes are) and the Earth's surface (where temperatures are still above freezing). Only after this happens will we see snowflakes make it down to where we can see them. Otherwise we may see raindrops initially. 2) The system is moving pretty quick. It will be in and out by mid to late morning. Not much time for snow to accumulate. Finally, relatively warm ground temperatures will also make it tough for the snow to stick, so the flakes will melt as they hit the ground. IF it can snow hard enough and long enough to cool those ground temperatures some more, we may be able to get a dusting on the ground. I won't rule out a few areas (mainly those areas under the Winter Weather Advisory) picking up a half-inch. It is also in these areas where there may be some slick spots in the morning. Overall though I think this is a minor system, even by Mississippi standards.

I'll be around on my Twitter page early in the morning sending out updates. Time to go home and get some rest.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Tuesday Night Flurry Chances & COLD Next Week

2010-12-06T17:22:00.000-06:00

I'm off today and my wife is taking a nap. What better time to update you on tomorrow night's flurry chances.

First, a peak this morning's run of the NAM (North American Mesoscale) model data using BUFKIT. Again, the timeline reads from right to left. We've been looking at Tuesday night and early Wednesday for possible precipitation. Click on the graphic to make it larger.

This morning's run of the NAM was dry. This afternoon's run does show a brief period of FLURRIES north of the Jackson metro for tomorrow night.

This morning's run of the GFS (Global Forecast System) is displayed below. Click the image to make it larger.

IF the GFS is right, we would see about a half-inch of snow. BUT, soil temperatures are still are in the upper 40s and 50s, so that will likely melt the flakes as they hit the ground. Another thing against little, if any, accumulation is the fact that there is that the system will zip by fast, so we only have a few hours for the snow to fall, IF it is going to snow. Finally, the system just doesn't have much moisture to work with. So, the best case scenario I see would be for a dusting on elevated surface like grass. Temperatures will be cold at the surface so that IF anything does fall, there could be a few slick spots on Wednesday morning. IF, IF, IF...

Next week we may see the coldest temperatures so far this season...here is the latest ECMWF (Euro) model for Sunday evening. The blues, pink, purples and deep reds are the cold temperatures. The purple and deep red colors are the coldest!

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com