Monday's Storms

Things are still a go for severe storms tomorrow. Our time frame is going to be from about 1PM-7PM for the entire area, with the initial storms developing quickly after lunchtime.

The is the newest data from our high resolution StormCast model. The map below shows just how unstable the atmosphere will be, with moderate instability developing by 3PM over a large part of the area. The higher the instability, the easier it is for the air to rise, forming clouds and eventually storms.

The air won't have any issues rising tomorrow afternoon with a potent upper level disturbance and strong surface cold front arriving in time for our peak afternoon heating.

Large hail and damaging straight-line winds will be the main risks, BUT early on storms will be out on their own and tornadoes will be quite possible with those storms. By 4PM-5PM the storms should evolve into a squall line. At that time the tornado threat will begin to go down with damaging straight-line winds being quite likely.

Things to watch out for tomorrow will be adjustments in timing as well as a cap (warmer temperatures aloft) hanging on longer than expected. The cap works against storms, but I think we will have enough instability around to break that cap pretty quick by mid-afternoon.

I'll post an update around 9AM tomorrow.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com