Monday Morning Storm Potential

Today will remain storm-free for central and south Mississippi. As I mentioned yesterday, we have some warmer air aloft, called a cap. This will help to keep the atmosphere in what we call a "conditionally unstable" condition. This means that the atmosphere would be unstable if something happened. In this case, if the cap were to break, then the atmosphere would be unstable and storms would form. The cap will be quite strong later today and this evening, so I don't think there is much chance for storms to form today. That will change by Monday morning as a strong cold front moves into the region. This will help create the "lift" needed to overcome the cap.

The next two maps show the time frame for storms for your area, along with the nature of severe weather, if any, I expect for your area. You can click on these graphics to make them larger.

Thankfully it appears most of our coverage area will not have to worry about the real nasty storms. But, if you live in Issaquena, Sharkey, Humphreys, Holmes, Yazoo, and Attala counties, you really need to be weather aware tomorrow as those areas will have the best chance to see golfball size hail, 75mph winds, and possibly a strong tornado or two. There is still a somewhat smaller chance for one of the nasty storms to develop as far south the I-20 corridor, but the best chances are across the Delta and closer to Highway 82. As for south Mississippi, the southwestern part of the state (Natchez area) may not get too much rain or storms out of this. The main system is passing well north of that area and it looks like the front will be coming through prior to daytime heating cranking up. Plus, the cap will be a little more stubborn to get rid of across that part of the state. BUT, if a storm or two can get going, it would be severe and it would be quite nasty. So, even though this part of the state has a lesser chance for severe weather compared to other areas, the severe weather risk is NOT zero. Finally, southeast Mississippi will have a little better chance at some severe storms tomorrow afternoon as the front will be coming through during peak afternoon heating, which will help to overcome the cap and fuel severe storms. By the time this happens, the front should be just about out of our coverage area. However, if the front moves slower than I expect, that may increase the risk of severe storms for areas like Collins, Prentiss, Raleigh, and Monticello.

The next three graphics are from the StormCast model we run in the WLBT Weather Center. We run it 4 times a day. This is just a model, but it does give you an idea of how things may unfold tomorrow. You can click these images to make them larger.

I will be checking out new data this afternoon and have the latest tonight on WLBT at 5PM, 10PM and 10:30PM. Normally I would be in to assist with severe weather coverage, but I'm scheduled to work for Barbie tomorrow afternoon, so Paul may be on his own for the on-air stuff. It is possible that schedule will get adjusted. Regardless, I will be covering the storms online from home, if I am not in the studio. Be sure to follow me on Twitter by clicking here. Twitter is AWESOME and a great way to get weather information FAST. It is sometimes faster than TV!

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com