Severe Weather Awareness Week - Day 4 - Lightning

Lightning is one of those things that people seem to be either deathly afraid or some would never think twice about walking outside in the middle of it. Few people realize that lightning, on average, kills more people than tornadoes and hurricanes combined each year. From 1990-2003, 14 people were killed by lightning in Mississippi. This ranked our state 19th in the country for lightning deaths. Louisiana ranked 10th, with 23 fatalities during that period.

When lightning strikes, it can heat the air around it to around 54,000°F. This is almost six times hotter than the surface of the sun! Most people are killed by lightning during the warm months of the year. This is mainly because the days our longer and we spend more time outdoors. Plus, spring and summer heat helps fuel thunderstorms which by definition produce lightning. Keep in mind that lightning is just as deadly during the winter months.

If you can hear thunder, you can be struck by lightning. So if you are outdoors and hear thunder in the distance, you know that it is time to move inside your home, work, school, etc. If you can't get into a building, you can get into your car. However, a lot of cars have a lot plastic in them nowadays, so all metal vehicles offer the best protection. It is a myth that the rubber tires on the car protect you, rather it is the metal body that does. If you seek shelter in a car or are in a car during a thunderstorm, you will want to avoid touching anything metal.

If you are outside and can't seek shelter in a building or vehicle, here are some things to avoid: Areas of water, metal equipment like tractors, scooters, and golf carts. You will want to avoid motorcycles. Also, put down sporting equipment like golf clubs and metal baseball bats.

Do not stand under trees, especially those that are alone or in open areas. Avoid wire fences, clothes lines, metal pipes, rails. All these things could potentially offer a path for lightning to travel to you. If outside and you feel your hair stand on end, this means that lightning is likely getting ready to strike. You will want to immediately drop to your knees and bend forward, putting your hands on your knees. Check out this example of what I'm talking about:

If you are at home you should avoid using a land line phone unless absolutely necessary. You will want to unplug any sensitive equipment like TVs and computers. Surge protectors will not offer reliable protection should your home be hit with a direct lightning strike.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Severe Weather Awareness Week - Day 3 - Tornadoes

Today is Day 3 of Severe Weather Awareness Week for our area. Today I am going to talk about tornadoes.

A tornado is defined as a violently rotating column of air that is in contact with a cloud base and in contact with the ground. Tornadoes come in various sizes and intensity. They can be on the ground anywhere from seconds to hours.

Mississippi sees its fair share of tornadoes each year. They can occur in any month, but we normally see a peak in the spring months and a secondary peak in the fall. Tornadoes can occur during any time of day or night. It is at night when even weak tornadoes can be very dangerous as most people are asleep. It is because of this WLBT has been a leader in promoting NOAA Weather radios over the past few years. A weather radio is perhaps the quickest way for you to get tornado warnings as the alarm on the radio sounds as soon as the button is hit at the National Weather Service. It is then you may be able to turn you TV to WLBT or log on to wlbt.com for live coverage of bad storms. I will talk more about weather radios on Friday.

Often times we think of tornadoes occurring out in the Plains in states like Kansas and Oklahoma. Mississippi gets its fair share of tornadoes. In 2009, Mississippi had a total of 45 tornadoes. In 2008 there were 109 tornadoes in Mississippi. Thankfully the vast majority of tornadoes are weak, but as I mentioned above, even weak tornadoes can cause damage and injuries, especially at night.

Tornadoes are rated based on the damage they cause using the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Here is that scale:

Keep in mind that the wind speeds indicated in the scale are estimates, not measurements.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK is the NOAA agency responsible for issuing Tornado Watches. They also issue Severe Thunderstorm Watches. A Tornado Watch means that weather conditions are favorable for the development of tornadoes and other severe thunderstorms that could produce large hail and damaging straight-line winds. A Tornado Watch often covers a large geographical area and remains in effect for up to 8 hours, sometimes longer. A Tornado Watch means that you should be aware of rapidly changing weather conditions. This is the time when you should review your action plans and keep in touch with your friends and family to make sure they are aware of the weather situation. This is also when you may want to bring outdoor pets inside.

Local National Weather Service forecast offices are responsible for issuing Tornado Warnings (along with severe thunderstorm warnings). A Tornado Warning means that a tornado has been sighted by a trained spotter or perhaps members of law enforcement or emergency management. A Tornado warning may also be issued when rotation is detected by Doppler Radar. A tornado warning is normally issued for parts of a county or parts of several counties that are in the path of the storm. When a tornado warning is issued for your area, this is the time when you need to action to save your life. Keep in mind that a tornado can occur even with no warning or watch in effect.

An easy set or tornado rules you can remember and apply to just about any situation is called DUCK. I teach this to school kids all across the state. DUCK is an acronym.
D - Downstairs
U - Underneath Something
C - Center of Home or Building
K - Keep Away from Windows

To explain further, you want to be on the lowest level of your home, school, work place, etc. You want to be under something, like a work bench, as this will help protect your body in the event debris is flying or the roof of the building you are in collapses You want to put as many walls between you and the outside. This is because this will put you in a more sturdy part of the building. Finally, you want to stay away from windows as strong winds, hail and flaying debris can break windows. You DO NOT want to waste time trying to open your windows. This used to be what people were told to do because it was thought opening your windows would help equalize the pressure. Again, doing this just waste time and is of no value.

Some other things you can do is to wear a bike or football helmet. This will protect your head. You can even put on a heavy winter coat to give your body extra cushioning Some of these safety rules may sound a little crazy, but it is all about trying to protect your body from flying debris when it comes to tornadoes. A lot of people have a fear of being sucked into tornadoes. While a tornado can certainly pick you up, the biggest danger is from flying debris.

A mobile home can be a death trap during a tornado. If you live in one, you MUST have a place to go to during severe weather. If you live in anything but the bottom floor of an apartment, you will want to make friends with your downstairs neighbors as that will be the place to be during strong winds and tornadoes.

Of course, sometime you may be out on the road when severe weather strikes. If this is the case, the first thing you want to do is try to seek shelter in a sturdy building. People have been known to survive tornadoes in some strange places like bank vaults. If you can't find a sturdy building, look for a ditch safely away from the road. You can crouch down in the ditch and that will help give you a little shelter. Having said that, you must be careful and alert while doing this, as some of these storms can drop a lot of water in a short period of time. I don't want to see you getting hurt or killed due to flash flooding, so be careful.

One other option, which I only recommend as a last resort, is trying to drive away from the tornado. In order to do this, you will need to drive at a 90° angle away from the tornado. This can be hard to do as many people can easily get confused with their directions, or there may not be a road, and there may just not be enough time to do this. Also, tornadoes can change directions or increase in speed without warning. You DO NOT want to try to out run a tornado. I also DO NOT recommend staying in your car or seeking shelter under an overpass.

Some of the ideas I've given above are worse case situations and hopefully you are never put in that position. Sometimes what you end up doing to protect yourself is the best "worse" solution. This is why it is just simply important to keep updated on the weather and alter your plans when severe storms are forecast.

I will talk about lightning on Thursday.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Wet Snow Tonight

No big changes for our snow chances tonight. Currently low pressure to our west is bringing rain to parts of Louisiana and that is starting to move into Mississippi. Wet snow is falling on the back side of the rain shield. This will cross the area tonight. Here is the latest radar image.

Temperatures will be warm enough to keep all the precip. rain this evening. Later tonight as temperatures fall, wet snow will begin to mix in. Areas along I-20 from Vicksburg to Jackson have the best chance to see a brief change to all snow. It is in these areas were some very minor accumulations may occur on grassy surfaces and roof tops. Like I said last night, this is not going to be like the storm from two weeks ago and I do not expect any travel problems. Sorry kids, you will likely have school tomorrow. :)

I'm still watching late this week and early next week for perhaps one or two more systems that may be a little more significant. More on that tomorrow.

Eric Law - elaw@wlbt.com

Severe Weather Awareness Week - Day 2 - Flash Flooding

Severe Weather Awareness week continues for Mississippi and Louisiana. Today I am going to discuss flash flooding.

When we think of severe weather, we often think of strong winds and tornadoes, maybe even hail. However, one of the biggest threats and the number one severe weather killer is actually flash flooding. From 1979-2008, an average of 93 people were killed each year due to flooding.

So what is flash flooding? Flash flooding is when there is a fast rise of water due to slow moving heavy storms. Flash flooding can also happen when rain or storms move over the same areas in a short period of time. This is called storm training. Flash flooding can occur in a "flash" and without warning. The intensity of the rain and duration of rainfall are the biggest factors that contribute to flash flooding.

Few people realize the force behind moving water. Moving water can have enough power to push just about anything out of its path and it can be especially deceptive to drivers. Driving into flood waters can stall your vehicle as the water is often deeper than you think. It is also possible that the ground has been washed away. If either of these situations happen, you and your vehicle could be swept away, possibly being seriously injured or killed. A good rule to remember is "turn around don't drown."

The National Weather Services issues flash flood alerts. One alert, called a Flash Flood Watch, means that there is a possibility for heavy rains to causes flash flooding. A Flash Flood Warning means that flash flooding is occurring right now or is imminent. When a warning is issued, this is when you need to move to higher ground, especially if you live near a river, creek, stream, etc.

Keep in mind that non-severe thunderstorms can produce flash flooding. If you are driving during a thunderstorm, you will want to watch for flooding in areas like highway dips, bridges, and other low areas. Be especially careful at night when it is even harder to recognize flood dangers. One should also be careful while camping during heavy rains. Do not cross fast flowing streams where the water is more than a 2-3 inches high.

One final note is that other types of flooding such as river flooding can be just as dangerous. In these situations, the water won't rise as suddenly as in a flash flooding event, but the same rules apply when it comes to protecting your life.

Tomorrow's topic is tornadoes.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Tuesday Night Snow Chances

There continues to be signs we'll have a chance to see some snow across the area, but I must caution you we're not talking anything like the February 12th storm. This will be more of a tease with a general rain/snow mix. Below is a forecasting sounding for the Jackson area from today's 12Z GFS.

The image above is vertical profile of the atmosphere for Tuesday at 10PM. The bright pink line is the freezing line. The red line is temperature and the green line is dew point. Temperatures aloft will be just cold enough to support snowflakes to grow. I've highlighted that in the image above. But, closer to the surface (the bottom part of the image), you'll notice that red line crosses over the bright pink line. That indicates that temperatures will be above freezing at roughly 3°C or around 37-38°F. That being said, some of those snow flakes will melt before hitting the ground. Thus, the Tuesday night event will be more of a rain/snow mix. There shouldn't be any problems with the roads, but some very minor accumulation will be possible on elevated surfaces (mainly grass). Below is a image from the latest SREF model. It shows snow probabilities of 1" or higher. I've highlighted the very low (20% or less) probabilities over our area. 

By the way, the NAM model keeps all the preicp. liquid. Of course, things can change, but I would not get my hopes up with this system. 

Having said all of that, check out the BUFKIT profile from today's 12Z GFS model run. The timeline reads from right to left. 

This is looking at precip. over the next week. Looks like a total of three systems to watch. The first being Tuesday night, then another late Friday, and another early next week. These latter two systems will probably be stronger than the one on Tuesday night. Friday's system will have the cold air in place. So hang on, still plenty of winter left to go in the Deep South given our active pattern. 

Eric Law - elaw@wlbt.com

Severe Weather Awareness Week - Day 1 - Thunderstorms

Today begins Severe Weather Awareness Week in Mississippi and Louisiana. This is the week that we need to spend time preparing for the upcoming Spring severe weather season. There are indications this will be an active severe weather season for the Deep South, so this is the perfect time to develop a severe weather plan, buy a NOAA weather radio, or just think about what you will do when severe weather strikes your community.

Typically we have two severe weather seasons in Mississippi. The first normally begins by mid-March and runs into early May. The second severe weather "season" comes in late October and continues into early December. That being said, we can have severe weather and thunderstorms any day of the year.

Mississippi sees all types of severe weather from large hail, strong straight-line winds, tornadoes and flash flooding. This week, with some help from the Jackson National Weather Service, I will be posting on all of these topics and more.

Today's topic has to do with thunderstorms. First off, a simple definition of a thunderstorm is a rain cloud that produces lightning. Thunderstorms come in all forms and they can all be dangerous since by definition they produce lightning. That being said, not all thunderstorms are considered severe. At WLBT, I often gets calls and e-mails from people who say something like, "It is lightning really bad" or "the thunder is so loud, I'm scared," and they all want to know why their county is not under a severe thunderstorm warning. The answer is usually because the storm is not meeting the threshold of what is considered "severe." Lightning and thunder actually don't play into whether a warning is issued. If it did, we would probably have to double or triple the amount of warnings we have in an average year. That would cause a lot of un-necessary panic.

Yes, thunderstorms are dangerous. But, some common sense can go a long way to protecting yourself and your family. The basic rule is that if you hear thunder, lightning isn't too far away, and it means it is time to go inside. This is normally all it takes to protect yourself from common thunderstorms. There are times when storms are more dangerous and it is those situations they are classified as severe and that is also when you may have to go the extra mile to protect yourself. The criteria used to gauge if a thunderstorm is severe are:

• Hail that is 1" in diameter or larger
• Wind gusts of 58mph or higher
• A tornado either spotted or at least moderate rotation detected by Doppler Radar.

A storm does not have to meet all three of those requirements, only one of them. If the storm does, or it is believed a storm will, a severe thunderstorm warning (or if a tornado is possible, then tornado warning), will be issued. This brings me to the next question. Who issues severe weather warnings?

A lot of people believe that those meteorologists, like me, who work in the media, issue warnings. This is not true. It is the local National Weather Service office that is responsible for issuing severe weather warnings. It is our job as a media outlet to pass along that information to our viewers. The WLBT viewing area is actually covered by two National Weather Services offices. The office in Jackson covers all of our viewing area, except Wilkinson, Amite, Pike and Walthall Counties. Those counties are covered by the Slidell, LA NWS. The warning criteria are the same for both offices.

Large hail (at least 1" in diameter) can damage property (cars, windows, trailers etc.) and crops. In 2005, wind-driven large hail in Yazoo County caused a significant amount of damage to houses. In some cases the hail penetrated the sides of houses or took the paint off. I also can't tell you how many cars I've seen damaged by hail. You may recall a big hail storm that moved across the Jackson Metro area a few years ago. Several days later, a lot of car dealerships were having "hail sales" due to the amount of vehicles that got damaged because of the hail.

Strong winds can obviously cause damage. The strongest storms can produce straight-line winds in excess of 100mph, but that is rare. 60-70mph winds are more common. The damage can resemble the damage caused by tornadoes.

Getting inside a sturdy structure is the best thing you can do to protect yourself from thunderstorms. You want to avoid being outside if at all possible. If are are outside and there is no where to get inside, stay away from anything metal and you do not want to be directly next to or under trees. You want to try to make yourself the shortest object around. If you are in a car, you will likely be safe from lightning. Not because of the rubber tires, but rather the metal body of the vehicle. There are some further rules that need to be followed if you are in a car, but I'll talk about those later in the week.

Tomorrow I'll be talking about the dangers of flash flooding.

Eric Law - elaw@wlbt.com

Storms Tonight...Snow Tuesday?

This certainly has been an interesting winter. It has kept us forecasters on our toes to say the least. First off, numerous hail reports across south Mississippi tonight. Things will improve late tonight, but we'll still see a risk of hail in the orange shaded area here:

Once the storms clear out, we're still going to have to deal with some low level clouds. Here is the 0Z 2/22/10 NAM BUFKIT profiel for Jackson. The timeline reads from right to left. In this image we're looking at relative humidity from the surface through the atmosphere. Red colors indicate RH values >70%, green >90%. Generally 70% or higher RH we would expect to see some clouds. Notice all the reds and greens in the lower part of the atmosphere, near the surface, going into Monday afternoon. These high RH values will likely mean clouds holding on for a better part of the Monday.

 

There will be another system moving in late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This one will have some cold air to work with, at least aloft, but still lots of questions if we can get any frozen precip. down to the surface as surface temperatures will remain above freezing. This system is not as straight-forward as the one from a couple of weeks ago. In any event, if you are a snow lover, I would not get my hopes up.

Monday marks the beginning of severe weather awareness week in Mississippi. I will be posting severe weather tips each day this week, so be sure to check back! It looks like this will be an active severe weather season in our area.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Rain This Weekend

I hope that all of you have been enjoying the warmer temperatures and sunshine the past day or two. Unfortunately, it won't last much longer. If you have some outdoor things to do (like me - I have leaves to rake!),  try to get it done on Friday or perhaps Saturday. The good news is that the system coming through late Saturday and into Sunday night will bring all liquid precip. to our area. A couple of models hint that there may be some strong thunderstorms across the Highway 84 corridor in south Mississippi Sunday afternoon and evening, but it is too soon to say if the juicy air will make it that far north. Going into next week, chilly temperatures return. There are signs of a Gulf low developing the middle to latter part of next week and with cooler temperatures around, that could spell some type of frozen precip. It is way too early to get into too much details on it.

Here is the BUFKIT profile for Jackson from today's 12Z GFS model. The timeline on BUFKIT reads from right to left. 

I highlighted the average high and low temperatures on the profile to show that temperatures will stay below average for the week, possibly longer.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com 

Snow Chances Return Tonight

A bit of a complicated forecast for tonight, but it seems a little more probable that there will be at least a mix of rain and snow for the majority of the area late this evening and overnight. The window for snow is small as there will be a race for the colder air to get in here before the atmosphere dries up. Current radar and surface features remain just to our northwest and will arrive after sunset. Until then expect just some spotty rain showers.As the cold front gets closer, showers will be a little more widespread. Once the front moves through, that's when we could see a mix of rain and snow or a change to all snow. Here is the latest radar image.

Currently the National Weather Service in Jackson has placed the northern and eastern counties in our viewing area under a Winter Weather Advisory for this evening into Monday morning. It is possible when their afternoon update comes out, they will extend this advisory further south and west. Advisory or not, there is the potential to see a  mix or change over to snow, especially north of the I-20 corridor and areas east of I-55. There is also the potential for some minor accumulations of an inch or less and this will be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces. I don't expect any major travel problems, but once again we'll have to watch for some slick bridges tonight and early Monday. Here are the latest forecast snow totals from the 12Z GFS (top image) and 12Z NAM (bottom image).

With the big snow still fresh on everyone's mind, I want to stress that whatever snow we see tonight won't be like what we had on Friday. Many areas may not see a full change over to snow and accumulations will be minor. I will have full updates today on the WLBT 5PM Report and again following NBC's coverage of the Olympics tonight at 10:30pm.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Snow Totals & The Next System

Wow, Thursday and Friday were some long days! I woke up at 10am Thursday and didn't go to bed until 9pm Friday. I will say this: It was very nice that even though the weather was active, the snow beats having to cover our usual severe weather (i.e. high winds & tornadoes). Yes, the snow is an inconvience and certainly causes its fair share of problems like power outages, wrecks and what not. But riding around the area, I got a really good feeling watching kids get to enjoy the snow. It reminded me when I was a little boy and how exicted I would get when it snowed. Okay, maybe a little of that excitement was due to school being closed, but in my mind, snow days are fun. All that being said, there were some power outages. Thankfully Entergy was able to restore most of the power pretty quick. Overall I think the extreme cold from Janurary caused far more problems than Friday's snow.

Overall I am pleased with how the models handled the event, even from early on. Snow is always hard to forecast in this part of the country (frankly, just about anywhere). Late Thursday, after I got word that Dallas has set a record of 11.2" of snow for a calendar day, I was a little worried that the models were not realizing the full potential of the system. The NWS in Dallas, TX was forecasting 2-4" for the Dallas area, so their forecast was a major bust. When the storm was done, 12.5" of snow had fallen at the DFW airport. This was an all-time record snow even for them! Our snow totals (for good or bad, depending on your view), were not that high and actually pretty much on target. Below is a nice graphic put together by the NWS in Jackson. It details the snowfall totals pretty well.

One other neat thing to tell you about. 49 out of the 50 states had snow on the ground last night and early this morning. Check out this snowfall depth map from NOAA. Impressive to say the least!

 Now let's talk about the next system, which is quickly moving in. Here is it on satelilte/radar.

It doesn't look like much now, but a strong clipper type cold front will move through late tomorrow. Clouds will increase, followed by some light rain. A lot of this precip. will fall behind the front. That being said, the models are hinting that some of the rain may mix with or change to some light snow overnight Sunday into Monday. Here is the BUFKIT profile for Jackson from today's 12Z NAM model. The time line on the BUFKIT profile reads right to left.

Also, below is the forecast snowfall from the same model. It appears to be a overdone, especially with snow extending into southwest Mississippi. It looks like temperatuers will be too warm south of I-20 to support snow, and by the time colder air arrives, the precip. will be gone.

New data is coming in now, so tune in tonight after the Olympics for an upate. I'll also have an update tomorrow from 6-7am on the WLBT Morning show.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Busy, Busy, Busy!

It has been a very busy morning at WLBT. Snow continues to fall steadily along and south of the I-20 corridor. So far snow totals are panning out great for most areas. Generally seeing around 4" from Vicksburg to Fayette to Brookhaven. Between 3-4" in the metro area. Snow will continue. Surface low passing to the south accross the Gulf of Mexico, wrapping colder air in. We were around 34° most of the night in Jackson...down to freezing now. Upper low coming into the Shreveport area now will continue to squeeze out snow through late morning and early afternoon. Heavier snow will wind down by mid to late morning for most areas. I expect another 1-2" of additional snowfall...possibly more in south Mississippi. I'll post more later as I have time. Here is the latest radar.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Winter Weather Update

We continue to see mostly snow across the region. This snow is falling moderate to at times heavy along the I-20 corridor and into south Mississippi. Lighter snow towards Highway 82. There has been some sleet and even light rain reported a couple of hours ago across parts of south Mississippi. Didn't last long and everyone seems to be back over to all snow now. Being that it is in the middle of the night, weather reports are a bit hard to come by. :)

With snow increasing in intensity, we are seeing bridges get slushy and slick. Some side roads also will be getting slick. Travel conditions will continue to go down through the rest of the night and through this morning.
Overall foreacst snow totals are on track. Most places along and south of I-20 will reach the 4" mark, possibly as much as 7"-8" - especially toward Highway 84. We still have many hours of snow left. In fact it is STILL snowing in east Texas. Snow may actually linger into the mid-afternoon hours or even later for southeast Mississippi. Heavist snow will be from now through mid-morning.

Just about all schools are closed. Those that have not decided, will likely let us know by 5AM. I really can't imagine any school system being open today given the weather conditions, but definitely don't assume anything until an offical word is made.

Beginning at 3:30am I will be hosting a live blog using Cover It Live on wlbt.com, so you can submit your weather questions, storm reports, etc. Also, Meteorologist Paul Williams and I will begin team coverage of our winter weather at 4AM on WLBT and we will be with you on the air through the morning.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Latest GFS & NAM Snow Forecasts

Lates GFS and NAM models are in....here are their snowfall total forecasts. Top image is GFS, bottom image is the NAM.

The NAM seems a little underdone over our area, given the large amount of snow to our west (see radar image below). It also seems a bit overdone around Mobile, AL (see the 10"+ totals there).

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Moderate to Heavy Snow Overnight

Latest regional radar shows a large area of moderate to heavy snow to our west, headed this way. It will arriver overnight, producing snowfall rates on the order of 1.5-2" per hour in some areas.

This will likely end up being one of the biggest February snows our area has seen in about 50 years..perhaps the biggest on record for February. From 1850-2010 (so far):

•  4.0" Feb. 23, 1901
• 3.6" Feb. 23, 1968
• 1.4" Feb. 1, 1985
• 1.0" Feb. 1, 1940
• Trace Feb. 11, 2010

Lots of people wanting to know about closings & delays. We are posting them here. If your school is not on the list, keep checking back. I suspect MOST school systems will decide tonight given that snow is already falling.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Snow Arrives

The atmosphere has saturated up and we've been getting reports of snow across the area for the better part of an hour. The intensity of the snow will pick up overnight. The highest amounts still forecast along and south of I-20 to near Highway 84. A general 4" to as much as 8" will be possible in these area. Model output suggest as much as a foot near Highway 84...this would be unlikely given some sleet mixing in for the next few hours. Once it starts snowing at your house, enjoy it for at least the next 12 hours. Heavy snow will end by mid morning and we'll be left with some snow showers and flurries into mid-afternoon. 

This pic is from outside my house in Madison Co. as the first flakes started to fall.

You can send your pictures to WLBT by going here. You can also follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates. Tomorrow morning I'll be hosting a live on-line chat at wlbt.com. You can log on and ask your weather question and submit storm reports to me - LIVE!

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

It Is Snowing...In The Clouds!

Precp. starting to move in, but some dry air aloft is keeping most of it from hitting the ground. Here is the upper air sounding from Jackson from this afternoon.

This image shows the profile of the atmosphere -- top to bottom. Temperature is the red line, green line is dewpoint. I've highlighted the freezing line with a yellow line. Temperatures through the atmosphere remain below freezing. It is just a little above freezing at the surface (we're at 39° in Jackson as I type this). As deeper moisture moves in this evening, that patch of dry air will erode so that the snow can make it down to the surface. Right now it looks like this won't completely happen until mid-evening. Until then just a few flurries or sleet pellets can be expected. Another weather balloon is going up now, so before too long we'll be able to tell how much that dry air has been eroded. Though surface temperatures are still above freezing, once the heavier precip. makes it to the ground, it will cause our temperature to fall at or below freezing.

Here is the latest radar image. You can see the precip. overhead. Looks a lot worse than it actually is due to that area of dry air I talked about earlier. I've also highlighted the areas to our west who are getting moderate to heavy snow. This area is moving right toward us, so bust potential for this forecast is very, very low. I do not expect that we'll have to lower snowfall totals. If anything, they may need to be increased depending on how things develop. One other thing to note is that I suspect we'll get some reports of thundersnow. Yes, it can snow, thunder and lightning all at once. Doesn't happen real often though. I'm lead to believe we'll see some thundersnow due to the very strong lifting dynamics that are moving in. It will be in these heavier bursts of snow that we'll see the highest totals and the snow can add up very quickly.

Eric - elaw@wlbt

Winter Storm Warnings

Winter storm warnings are posted for the region. Pink areas below are counties under the Winter Storm Warning. Winter Weather Advisory for the light purple counties. Image from the NWS in Jackson.

Latest radar shows precip. to our west. Can't rule out some light rain or sleet this afternoon. Heavy stuff comes in after sunset. Low pressure developing near Brownsville, TX will track east into the Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Friday. High pressure to our north making for a rather chilly day. It will continue to pump in cold air for the Gulf low to work with.

Forecast sounding from today's 12Z GFS continue to support all snow. This profile is for Jackson for Midnight. Will have to watch closely for warmer air to sneak in south of Highway 84 giving more of a sleet mix down that way, which will greatly reduce snowfall forecast.

Finally here are the latest GFS and NAM total snowfall forecast from 12Z today. GFS is the top image, NAM is the bottom image.

Snowfall amounts will be highest between I-20 and Highway 84. Somewhere in this swath could see as much as 8", though average will be more like 6". Snow totals north of I-20 could be as high as 4", but 1-3" seem more reasonable, with a dusting to 1" closer to Highway 82. The track of the low will ultimately determine where that most snow falls. Things that could go wrong with this is a the low tracking further south than forecast. A track further south would keep the heavier precip. south, reducing snow totals along the I-20 corridor and northward. A track further north would result in higher snowfall totals than currently forecast. Another thing that could go wrong would be if warmer air came in aloft, which would allow sleet to mix in. If this were to happen, snow totals would be significantly reduced. I'm mainly concerned about this across southern parts of the state. I-20 corridor should remain cold enough through the event to keep everything snow.

I'll post more later this afternoon. Tune to WLBT for full weather coverage. Also you can follow me on Twitter and Facebook.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Snow On The Way

Tried something different today: a vlog (video web blog). If I do this again, I'll 1) make it shorter and 2) try to make the video a little better quality. Let me know what you think. In the meantime, I have to get some sleep. I have a long couple of days coming up. I'll post an update either in the morning or early afternoon.



Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Gulf Snow?

It is cold outside and no sign of the cold air going anywhere soon. That's the easy part of this forecast. The bigger question is the formation of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) later this week and the ultimate track of this low. Below is a satellite image from the southwest US, which shows the upper low coming into southern California tonight.

With the system  moving onshore, it will be moving over radiosonde (weather balloon) sites, which will in turn give the computer models more meat to chew on and should lead to a more accurate picture as to what will happen.

Yesterday afternoon the GFS model started trending south with the GOM low. That trend continues. Here is the 18Z 2/9/10 GFS surface/precip./and 1000-500mb thickness data for Friday morning.

Here is the latest NAM model for the same time period (Friday morning).

There are a couple other models which also support a more southern track (though the GFS is the furtherest south). There are also some models, like the ECMWF (aka The Euro) that support a track further north. Just to re-cap, a track over the central GOM, like the GFS shows, would lead to very little snow along the I-20 corridor and points north. Instead with this track the highest chances for accumulating snow would be south of Highway 84, perhaps even further south toward I-10. A track further north would bring the best accumulating snows more toward the I-20 corridor or perhaps between I-20 and Highway 84. A track even further north would result in more of a mix of frozen precip. or all rain. This latter idea seems highly unlikely to me. I still would not go raid the stores and just keep checking back. I expect with the system coming inland we'll start to see all of the models focus in on a more accurate solution. I'll post another update tomorrow evening. Don't forget you can also follow me on Twitter for updates or on Facebook.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com

Busy Week Ahead

Hi folks,
Hope everyone has been doing well. It has been almost a month since my last blog post. I was on vacation for a couple of weeks, visiting my family in Virginia, plus I've been battling a bad sinus infection. I'm all better now, thankfully. What a good week to get back to blogging, with an active weather week in store for us. I'll get to all of the weather stuff in a moment, but let me first share a few pictures from my trip to Virginia. I'll think you'll enjoy these pictures.

Top left: My nieces Abigail & Caroline (sisters), and Alana; top right: My Aunt (left) & Mom (right); bottom left: Me with my brother's dog, Odie; bottom right: Me with my nephew, Isaac (Alana's brother). More pics. are on my Facebook page.

Now on to some weather stuff....first off, it seems like it has been pretty wet around here. The Jackson metro area picked up 5.15" of rain in January. This was actually about a half-inch below normal. It just seemed like we got a lot rain because nearly all of that fell the last half of the month, when we entered the current wet pattern. The first half of January was mostly just cold. The wet trend has continued into February, with over 2.50" of rain in the Jackson metro area, this being about an inch and a third above normal through today. More rain is coming in tonight. Check out this radar snapshot.

Pretty good area of rain to our west. This is going to move in tonight, dropping anywhere from a half-inch to an inch of rain across the region. You'll notice some pink and blue colors across northern Arkansas, Tennessee and points north. These colors represent a mix of frozen precip and snow, respectively. Temperatures are pretty chilly in that part of the country and this cold air is heading our way. There is an outside chance that the back edge of the precip. shield could change over to some sleet or snow early tomorrow morning, IF the cold air comes in quick enough. Even if it does, I don't expect any major travel issues outside of a few slick spots in bridges and overpasses in the Delta areas.

Wednesday and the first half of Thursday will be our quiet period of the week. Then system number two comes in and this one will have a little more cold air to work with. That could spell trouble late Thursday into Friday. I'll give you the alarming graphics first, then go into some details about the system.

    

The set-up for the late week system involved cold, dry air being in place across our area following tomorrow's cold front. The cold air won't modify as much as it otherwise would due to the snow pack to our north. Models show that a low pressure will develop in the Gulf of Mexico late week and send moisture up over our cold air. Looking at temperature profiles of the atmosphere, it would appear that temperatures would be cold enough to support all snow for most of the area. Now, I will stress hard once again that forecast snow in the Deep South is not easy. The road from A to Z is long and things almost certainly will change somewhat given we're still several days away from the event. As always we'll want to fine tune the track of the low. Further north would mean more moisture, but also warmer air, and as a result less snow and more ice/sleet, or even no snow at all. A track further south would mean less moisture and perhaps only south Mississippi getting some snow. The bottom line is I would not go to the store and buy up bread, milk, etc. just yet. Being 4 days away, we can't ignore the winter weather possibility, but we can't panic either. I'll post another update tomorrow. Feel free to post any questions.

Eric - elaw@wlbt.com